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View Diary: Republicans On Verge of 2008 Style Collapse, Says Democracy Corps Survey (200 comments)

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  •  Obama still weak in 2012 as 2010 showed. (1+ / 0-)
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    The dynamics of 2010 are still there, people are pissed about no health care reform, extension of Bush tax cuts, no help with mortgage fraud, dumb wars in Afghanistan.

    The economy is key and really Obama's only hope vs. Romney (primary winner) or Jeb Bush (brokered convention winner) is continued and increasing economy recovery.

    If you look at the jobs stats.

    Obama Battles Jobs Crisis
    It is clear how fragile and underwhelming the current recovery is. We have been here before and each time the economy fell back.  Most notably in Obama's hubris filled "Summer of Recovery" in 2010 as his too small, too GOP tax cut stimulus failed as Krugman and the other Nobel economists told him it would.

    Steady rise in jobs, Obama could win vs. Romney and tough fight vs. Jeb Bush.  If jobs fall back as they have EVERY time previously over last three years, Obama will lose to Romney or Jeb Bush.

    •  Obama has problems. But so do the (0+ / 0-)

      Republicans. Neither Ronmey nor Bush can unite the GOP voters. Too many would stay home or vote third party for various social or ideological reasons. I don't think Santorum or Gingrich can win either, although they might have higher turnouts as their followings probably would be more enthusiastic. Romney seems to me to be the only GOP candidate who would lose gracefully, as deep down inside he doesn't really want to be president; he just wants to run for president. Santorum probably would settle for any fair showing, as he has an eye towards 2016.

      2012 is going to be a battle of two parties each fighting to get their base and their independent supporters to bother to turnout and to be active in support of party candidates. Turnout in 2012, for both parties, is going to be very, very low, by historical standards, though, for the reasons stated in this diary, the Dems currently have an edge.

      The only way to achieve a bigger turnout is to propound a populist platform, for example in support of the principles of OWS. But neither party's leadership and financial sponsors will allow too much of that approach, as seen in Gingrich's experiment witih the idea.

      H'mm. I'm not terribly into this, anymore.

      by Knarfc on Fri Feb 17, 2012 at 10:43:18 PM PST

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      •  Jeb Bush unites religious and corporate GOP. (0+ / 0-)

        For whatever reason, the religious right wing GOP base likes Jeb Bush.  Bush is certainly considered reliable pro-Wall St guy, no Wall or banking regs like Bush Sr ($1T S&L debacle) or Bush Jr ($3T mortgage fraud Great  Recession).

        Jeb Bush would likely beat Obama due to Obama's problems alienating his base, low approval ratings, weak even if recovering economy and the anti-incumbent rage expressed by both Occupy Wall St and Tea Party.  2012 is going to had on the incumbents and Obama is THE incumbent and one who is going to have most of his 2008 campaign promises thrown back at him, mostly by those who voted for him 2008.  Which is the main reason Obama is vulnerable.  He had a winning base in 2008 and he alienated much of his own base to try and win over the GOP base.

        •  Well if Jeb Bush was so great why isn't he (0+ / 0-)

          running in the GOP primary?

          The reason is the Bush name is too toxic right not. That's why.

          H'mm. I'm not terribly into this, anymore.

          by Knarfc on Sat Feb 18, 2012 at 03:04:29 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

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