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View Diary: Redistricting Texas 2020 (24 comments)

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  •  Wow (5+ / 0-)

    Just wow. When we talked the other night this is not what I expected. The 11th will still be GOP in 2020, though, I think.

    22, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-21 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

    by wwmiv on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 06:49:52 AM PST

    •  Also (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      texasmom, TexMex

      Although I hope your diary does well, I'm gonna have super envy rage if you get more recs and comments. ;)

      22, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-21 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

      by wwmiv on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 06:51:34 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  TX-11 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      txcatlin, TexMex

      Yeah, it would be an interesting case. With an Obama number so low, the only thing that makes me think it might be Democratic is that with 2010 data, I tried splitting up El Paso into two fajita strips similar to the way that South Texas. If you do that end up with two districts that are about 75% Hispanic, you get something that voted similarly (for Obama, but not by that much) to 75% Hispanic South Texas Fajita strips. So if it's just a question of demographics, it could be Democratic (perhaps). But if turnout is that much lower or if voters are more conservative, then maybe not.

      •  Another Problem (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TexMex

        Is that Hispanics in most of the panhandle and high plains actually vote Republican.

        22, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-21 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

        by wwmiv on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 07:18:21 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  How do you know that? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TexMex

          That's exactly the part that I am unsure about. Sure, lots of heavily Hispanic precincts vote GOP. But they all have low turnout. Is it just the (small number) of anglos in those precincts who are voting, and voting GOP?

          •  In the 2004 election (5+ / 0-)

            I think we saw that in general, Hispanics tend to vote more Republican or Democratic due to their environment. For example, the 39th district in LA County which is 63% Hispanic and 21% White went 59% for Kerry while the 47th district in Orange County which is 65% Hispanic and 17% White went 49% for Kerry. It seems that the political culture in the area influences Hispanics. Rural Texas is very conservative but New York is very liberal so heavily Hispanics precincts in the Bronx went about 95% for Obama.

            For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/

            by Alibguy on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 07:28:08 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  CA-39 vs. CA-47 (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              TexMex

              Judging quickly by the demographics on those districts' wikipedia pages,

              1) The white voters in LA county CA-39 are probably more liberal than the white voters in Orange county CA-47.

              2) CA-39 is 5% more African American than CA-47.

              Both of those could explain the difference between 49% Kerry and 59% Kerry.

              I'm not saying it's not possible that the Hispanic vote varies as well, but districtwide comparison like this doesn't provide the evidence.

          •  I am went to undergrad in the (6+ / 0-)

            13th and Hispanics that do vote favor Republicans. I was active in the democratic party in the panhandle area and the only active members were the very old voters and the few trade union folks.

            •  Very Much So (3+ / 0-)

              Most of the old guard in the Panhandle are still Republican. It's the middle aged voters who are Republican... It just so happens that those are the voters able to drive and exercise the franchise and who have high turnout rates.

              Also, we need to remember that media markets and framing effects within the markets have huge impacts on the way that voters decide.

              22, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-21 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

              by wwmiv on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 07:44:44 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  Yes and No. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TexMex

            Go look at the SSVR breakdown in alot of those precincts and you'll find that the total number of registered voters is low and that turnout is actually fairly normal. In Ector County's 0404 you've got 66.3% SSVR (1224 of 1846) while McCain won 461-293. That's a turnout rate of 40.8%, which isn't low for Texas standards - for low go look in the inner cities of Houston and Dallas. Obviously Hispanics aren't as Republican as Anglos anywhere in Texas ever, but if there's a place where they are Republican it'll be the panhandle and high plains.

            22, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Childhood), TX-21 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

            by wwmiv on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 07:35:22 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  "experiment" with precincts/math/turnout (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              TexMex

              Ector 207 has 1346 registered voters, 146 of whom are SSVR. Assume for the moment that SSVR = Hispanic and only SSVR = Hispanic (obviously a simplification/not true). Assume that every one of the 96 Obama and 802 votes in Ector precinct 207 was cast by white voters.

              That would mean a turnout rate of 66.7% for white voters, and they voted 10.7% for Obama/89.3% for McCain.

              Now, let's apply those same rates to Ector precinct 404.

              If we turn the 622 white voters turn out at a rate of 66.7% and have them vote 10.7% for Obama, we get a white turnout of 415 voters, 44 of them for Obama and 371 for McCain.

              To get up to the actual vote total of 461-293 McCain, that means that you would have 90 Hispanic voters for McCain and 249 Hispanic voters for Obama.

              Overall, that means that the results in Ector 404 could be explained by:

              1) 27.7% Hispanic turnout with Hispanics breaking 73.5% for Obama.
              2) 66.7% Anglo turnout with Anglos breaking 10.7% for Obama.

              Obviously there are a lot of assumptions built in there, and mileage may vary, but based on those numbers it seems quite plausible to me that Hispanics in Ector 404 vote Democratic but vote at very low rates, and are simply overpowered by a much smaller number of higher turnout heavily GOP whites.

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