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View Diary: Redistricting Texas 2020 (24 comments)

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  •  "experiment" with precincts/math/turnout (1+ / 0-)
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    TexMex

    Ector 207 has 1346 registered voters, 146 of whom are SSVR. Assume for the moment that SSVR = Hispanic and only SSVR = Hispanic (obviously a simplification/not true). Assume that every one of the 96 Obama and 802 votes in Ector precinct 207 was cast by white voters.

    That would mean a turnout rate of 66.7% for white voters, and they voted 10.7% for Obama/89.3% for McCain.

    Now, let's apply those same rates to Ector precinct 404.

    If we turn the 622 white voters turn out at a rate of 66.7% and have them vote 10.7% for Obama, we get a white turnout of 415 voters, 44 of them for Obama and 371 for McCain.

    To get up to the actual vote total of 461-293 McCain, that means that you would have 90 Hispanic voters for McCain and 249 Hispanic voters for Obama.

    Overall, that means that the results in Ector 404 could be explained by:

    1) 27.7% Hispanic turnout with Hispanics breaking 73.5% for Obama.
    2) 66.7% Anglo turnout with Anglos breaking 10.7% for Obama.

    Obviously there are a lot of assumptions built in there, and mileage may vary, but based on those numbers it seems quite plausible to me that Hispanics in Ector 404 vote Democratic but vote at very low rates, and are simply overpowered by a much smaller number of higher turnout heavily GOP whites.

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