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View Diary: Minnesota redistricting: Court issues a least-change map (128 comments)

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  •  If that happens (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    nicolemm, WisJohn

    ... hopefully we'll be able to mount a stronger challenge to a 3rd District open seat than we did in 2008.  That was one of the (relatively few) Democratic missed opportunities of that year.

    •  With Chanhassen Now In MN-03..... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      IllinoyedR, savvyspy

      ....it's really gonna be a struggle to win even in an open seat in a strong Democratic year.

      •  Could be a very different story (0+ / 0-)

        by the end of the decade, though.  IIRC, Chaska voted for Obama, and I know Shakopee did.

        •  My Archives Show Chaska Going..... (0+ / 0-)

          McCain by a margin of 6123 to 5598 in 2008.  Interestingly, 20 years ago Chaska was a pretty Democratic town.  It had about 8,000 people then.  Now it's twice that large and leans considerably Republican.  Shakopee did vote for Obama by less than one percentage point....and went for every Republican on the ballot in 2010...including Chris Barden for Attorney General!!!  I expect it'll be at least a generation before this area becomes genuinely competitive again.

          •  One thing to note (0+ / 0-)

            is that between 2000 and 2004, these areas all got more Republican, including everything in Wright County, much of Anoka, and basically anywhere else there was heavy suburban population growth.  From 2004 to 2008, the electorate shifted towards Obama heavily, just like all the areas of the state.  I haven't ever done a study on how much and if it's on par to the state, but the trend is there so maybe at least the growth in Republicanism here will subside.

            You can track pretty much all this info based on population changes.  The suburbs growing rapidly got more Republican, the suburbs closer in where the population is getting older (like Minnetonka and Edina) are shrinking, or at least no longer growing.  All is great shit to study.

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