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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Barack Obama leads all GOP challengers by 6+ points (143 comments)

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  •  Read my diary on a worst case (7+ / 0-)

    scenario for Romney where he loses MI/AZ.  Even in that case, he gets more delegates on Super Tuesday unless Romney fails to meet the threshold for delegates in the South and Ohio.  (basically Virginia's 46 delegates erase most of his deficit.)

    Romney's real problems will be in the two weeks between Super Tuesday and Illinois.  Those states are horrible for Romney.  

    •  yeah, I agree (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      cany, Inland, Matt Z

      Santorum's screwed, delegate-wise, thanks to VA and IN and winner-take-all geography. In any kind of long drawn-out thing, I think Romney wins the most delegates, even if Santorum is a fair bit ahead in the actual voting. Which would be, of course, hilarious.

      But Santorum could still win if he consolidates conservatives and is clearly ahead of Romney and starts to win states like illinois or new jersey or california.

      •  I cannot imagine Santorum winning ca... but (0+ / 0-)

        what the hell do I know!

        202-224-3121 to Congress in D.C. USE it! You can tell how big a person is by what it takes to discourage them. "We're not perfect, but they're nuts."--Barney Frank 01/02/2012

        by cany on Thu Feb 23, 2012 at 10:47:42 PM PST

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        •  he'll do well in the central valley (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          cany, stevenaxelrod, Matt Z

          and parts of exurban socal, is my guess. romney will win the urban cores, gingrich suburban socal, and paul will pick up the north coast and possibly some of the sierra foothills and the sac valley as well.

          •  fortunately, that's not all of ca:) i think Mitt (0+ / 0-)

            will take the majority of ca.

            202-224-3121 to Congress in D.C. USE it! You can tell how big a person is by what it takes to discourage them. "We're not perfect, but they're nuts."--Barney Frank 01/02/2012

            by cany on Thu Feb 23, 2012 at 10:57:54 PM PST

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            •  it really depends how much the race is still going (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen

              by june. right now, i'd expect all four candidates to walk away with delegates. CA republicans are a pretty diverse (and often surprisingly reactionary) lot, and the primary is closed to democrats and independents this time IIRC.

              •  well, let's hope you are right! I would love to (0+ / 0-)

                see Paul get CA in substantial numbers. Maybe that would shake some things up. (as a note: I can't stand the guy but maybe it would send some kind of a message to the ca gop).

                202-224-3121 to Congress in D.C. USE it! You can tell how big a person is by what it takes to discourage them. "We're not perfect, but they're nuts."--Barney Frank 01/02/2012

                by cany on Fri Feb 24, 2012 at 03:53:33 PM PST

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                •  i think he'll do well in rural norcal (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  cany

                  and possibly the sierra foothills and parts of the bay area. i don't know socal wingnuts quite as well, but i'd bet he might place well in some districts down there as well. santorum will mop up the central valley between redding and bakersfield, if he's still in the race by that point.

                  •  He has a pretty big following, as you might (0+ / 0-)

                    expect, in Orange County.

                    BTW... did you see that John Cambell didn't get the county GOP nod? Weird I tells ya!  He voted for TARP and is unforgivable. Also Miller and Calvert got dishonerable mention as well.  BWAAAAAAAAAAH!

                    here and here.  

                    The GOP doesn't get any weirder than here. Gah is all I can say!

                    202-224-3121 to Congress in D.C. USE it! You can tell how big a person is by what it takes to discourage them. "We're not perfect, but they're nuts."--Barney Frank 01/02/2012

                    by cany on Sat Feb 25, 2012 at 10:26:28 AM PST

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      •  CA delegates are mostly by congressional district (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, cany

        given california's regional differences, i think all four candidates could walk away with delegates from CA.

      •  The Forced March to Mittdom: (0+ / 0-)
        I think Romney wins the most delegates, even if Santorum is a fair bit ahead in the actual voting.
        How many of the R voters think that Mitt's winning this thing fair and square?  How many non Mitt voters think they are getting a fair hearing?

        Romney is campaigning to be President SuperBain; his cure is to cut wages, end pensions, let companies go bankrupt, and let the assets of production go dark or be sold to China. He really thinks thats the best of all possible Americas.

        by Inland on Fri Feb 24, 2012 at 07:35:13 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

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