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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Barack Obama leads all GOP challengers by 6+ points (143 comments)

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  •  Or maybe they say: (1+ / 0-)
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    New Rule

    Geez, Santorum is doing about the same against Obama as Romney is - and he's genuinely one of us. I'd prefer to go with the guy I can trust, especially since he'll be better able to articulate our views and get more conservatives to vote with enthusiasm.

    •  well I hope they do say that, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      New Rule

      but are they really that stupid? Conservatives will indeed vote with less enthusiasm for Romney, but they'll still vote for him, and an unenthusiastic vote counts just as much as an enthusiastic one. The real difference is that many of the independents who would consider voting for Romney will never support Santorum.

      But quite apart from that, Santorum cannot possibly win  quickly - if he did get the nomination it could only be after a bitter battle that went all the way to the last states or even the convention. Even if he were as competitive against Obama in other respects (which he isn't) the very fact that he can only win "messily" whereas Romney could still win relatively "cleanly" should be enough to rule him out, given how bad the nomination fight has been so far for the popularity of the candidates.

      To me it's increasingly looking like a "no brainer" that Romney needs to get this quickly if the GOP is to have any chance of defeating Obama. But whether the GOP electorate can actually bring itself to face the obvious but unappealing truth is, happily, still far from certain.

      •  Flip it (0+ / 0-)

        and imagine that we're talking about Democrats.

        Your state's primary is coming up. You can vote for Joe Lieberman (hypothetically still a Democrat), who everyone thought would win over independents handily but is now struggling with them, or Russ Feingold, a liberal former senator who's now doing just as well in trial heats against the current Republican president you despise.

        Would you want that contest to end quickly, in favor of Lieberman, so that the race doesn't get drawn out too long?

        I'm not sure how I'd feel. But I'd understand why many of my like-minded friends wouldn't want to. They'd probably also take issue with the idea that the primary was causing any lasting damage at all: they'd say it's just a legitimate airing of what these two candidates believe relative to the issues they hold dear. Many would probably also believe - perhaps mistakenly - that once the nastiness of the primary is over, indies and moderates would once again look on the primary winner more favorably, giving him a true shot at the presidency.

        Now, maybe the choice of Lieberman doesn't quite work; it could be a little too far to the right for a proper equivalent. But not by much: Let's say Bayh, Lincoln, Landrieu. Someone most liberals would have to have overcome major reservations to vote for.

        In short, I think you're looking at the race as a neutral political analyst or observer (which is cool), but not as someone whose identity and belief system is all mixed up with the outcome. Most of those folks are probably not looking at it as rationally as you are.

      •  "are they really that stupid?" (0+ / 0-)

        But are they crafty enough to think strategically?

        "..The political class cannot solve the problems it created. " - Jay Rosen

        by New Rule on Fri Feb 24, 2012 at 09:40:33 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

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