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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Weekend Digest: 'Can't anybody here play this game?' (113 comments)

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  •  All are horrible states for Rmoney (1+ / 0-)
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    MichaelNY

    I'll let others cover PA and TX, but I live in Wisconsin and can say Romney in his current state is an almost comically bad fit for this state. Let me break Wisconsin down to show just how bad this state is for this "Midwestern" candidate:

    Southeast Wisconsin: Most Republicans in this area are suburban and exurban. The inner ring suburbs are probably Romney Country, but the outer ring suburbs and exurbs are even more conservative than Bachmann Country in Minnesota. Given what we saw in Minnesota, Romney will have a tough time in places like Waukesha and West Bend. And it's a tough time he can't afford.

    South Central Wisconsin: Romney can win Dane County, but he won't get many votes from it. His stance on industry might well lose him Rock County to Santorum, however, and Jefferson County will vote like Waukesha does. The rural counties will be tough for Romney just like in Iowa, Minnesota, and Missouri.

    Driftless Area: This area is probably over 50% moderate by ideology, but that's not going to help Romney that much. This was ideal Huckabee country in 2008, and Santorum will probably rack up a big margin here based on these voters. Romney will do well to come in second in any of these counties.

    Fox Valley/East Central: This is the westernmost part of the Industrial Midwest, though they don't make cars there. I'll pass judgement on Romney's ability to compete here until I see the Michigan results, but it's hardly ideal for him.

    Central and Northern Wisconsin: In a Republican primary, these areas are dominated by rural voters. While perhaps not as hopeless for Romney as the Driftless Area, these areas are still too populist for him to have much of a chance of winning. Also included are the easternmost St. Paul exurbs, but Minnesota suggests that Romney will lose these.

    My CD projection at this point:

    WI-01: Tossup, tilt Santorum (Cities could boost Romney if he can win industrial areas)
    WI-02: Tossup, tilt Romney (Rural areas could sink Romney)
    WI-03: Safe Santorum (Driftless Area hates Mitt)
    WI-04: Likely Romney (Milwaukee and its inner suburbs are good Romney turf)
    WI-05: Lean Santorum (Exurban but very conservative)
    WI-06: Lean Santorum (See WI-01, but with more rural areas)
    WI-07: Safe Santorum (Northwestern Wisconsin hates Mitt)
    WI-08: Likely Santorum (Romney would have to do well in Green Bay and stem the bleeding in rural areas)

    Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, unapologetic supporter of Obama and Occupy. Tammy Baldwin for Senate and Recall Walker!

    by fearlessfred14 on Mon Feb 27, 2012 at 07:49:35 AM PST

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