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View Diary: 2008 v. 2012: Is the presidential landscape changing? (177 comments)

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  •  Obama's approval rating is 50 (12+ / 0-)

    and as economy continues to improve and we get down to a republican opponent weakened by a divisive primary, things will look much more favorable.

    Arizona is in play. (huge hispanic population and no john mccain)

    Latinos will ensure key swing states :)

    •  What if the economy doesn't 'continue to improve'? (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      litho, ferg, auapplemac, Woody, pademocrat

      There's still no guarantee that the problems in Europe couldn't flare up, and we still have 8 months before the election for the economy to turn back down.  

      •  the economy will be good this year (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TofG

        it was bad in 2008 and 2010.  we are past a recession. jobless claims are falling to similar levels reminiscent of the 1984 recovery. Ronald Reagan won re-election in an improving economy and dropping jobless claims.

        we are definitely MOVING :)

        •  A Greek default and/or an Israeli strike on Iran (7+ / 0-)

          and the economy is back in the toilet.

          Neither one of those things is exactly impossible.  Some might even say both are likely to highly likely.

          Steve's last point is a good one: no one has ever been elected president in February.

          Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free
          ¡Boycott Arizona!

          by litho on Sun Feb 26, 2012 at 07:16:45 PM PST

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          •  I am hopeful (0+ / 0-)

            the winds are blowing with us towards sanity/hope and NOT despair :)

          •  Looks like there won't be a near term (1 year +) (4+ / 0-)

            Greek default.  That's probably off the table as a negative influence in 2012.

          •  Any Military Or Foreign Affairs Crisis Works (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TofG, kat68

            in the president's favor.

            •  Not True (0+ / 0-)

              If Israel attacks Iran, Obama will be dumbfounded.  he'll be in a terrible place.  

              To support Israel will mean pledging US defense of Israel if they are counter attacked.  This will most likely result in ramped up US military action/involvement in the middle east.  Obama's base will HATE that.

              To condemn Israel or stay silent will be heralded as a sign of weakness on terror, foreign affairs, Israel support - name your GOP narrative.  Either GOP candidate will be all over that.  General war could even break out, further complicating the president's choice.  Remember, Obama got about one month of bounce out of killing Osama Bin Laden.  A republican would have gotten a permanent bounce.  Dems get no bounce/credit for foreign affairs successes, and get crucified for foreign affairs debacles.

              Remember how hesitant the Obama administration was to intervene in Egypt and Libya?  How they couldn't seem to get their sea legs?  I think an Israeli attack on Iran is perhaps the single riskiest thing for Obama's re-election.  And, if it should happen in the summer of 2012 (Obama's approvals always suck in the summer), it could be a game changer.

              •  Two Words: Romney? Santorum? n/t (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sebastianguy99
                •  Don't get caught up buying your own hype (0+ / 0-)

                  Romney and Santorum look like complete losers on this site, but the "average voter" doesn't see them in nearly as dim a light.  Besides, they will simply be a stand-in for "Not-Obama", come November.  If people think Obama deserves a second term, he'll get it.  If they decide otherwise, they'll vote for Romney or Santorum (and it isn't going to be Santorum, anyway.)

          •  a greek default won't be as earth shattering (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ferg, TofG, pademocrat

            as people make it out to be because the world markets have had over a year for the Greek Problem to set in and most people out there know that in the end they will more than likely default so a lot of the shock from that has already been absorbed into the markets this last year.

        •  Also gas prices. That's a real pocket book issue (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Woody

          that's evident to all voters who drive or use gas heating/cooking.

          That's about as bottom line as you can get to the average voter.

          Progressives will win when we convince a majority that they, too, are Progressive.

          by auapplemac on Sun Feb 26, 2012 at 08:32:39 PM PST

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