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View Diary: Santorum's Already Won Michigan (31 comments)

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  •  agreed (2+ / 0-)
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    cryonaut, Deep Texan

    A big win in Arizona, coupled with a small win in Michigan, is extremely likely to result in overwhelmingly favorable coverage for Romney ("momentum," "comeback," "clear frontrunner," etc.) and bad coverage for Santorum ("the debate killed him"). Sure, Santorum will make some of the arguments in the diary; but I don't imagine they'll work.

    I'd love to be wrong, since I want to see a protracted nomination contest. But I'm pretty confident about this prediction.

    •  That narrative lasts exactly ONE week (1+ / 0-)
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      Because on Super Tuesday, Romney is going to get throttled. He not win a single state and then the narrative changes. Also, it may just be anecdotal but every time someone like Santorum, Gingrich, or whomever is the flavor of the month actually starts polling better than Mittens, they tank. Obviously, the negative advertising has a lot to do with it, but there is some evidence that these guys can't handle being the center of attention (see Gingrich's flacid debate performance in Fla.)

      But come Super Tuesday, Romney will be a loser and the race will trudge on, at least until April.

      •  I hope you're right. (1+ / 0-)
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        Don't forget, though, that a sufficiently positive narrative could make all of the previous Super Tuesday polling obsolete. Ohio, for example, is within reach if Santorum gets clobbered in the press after MI/AZ. If Romney takes OH, along with VA (a 100% lock), and the other three candidates continue to split the anti-Romney vote, he could easily get a plurality of delegates on Super Tuesday.

        Hopefully, though, he'll lose enough states so that the media feel compelled to call it a "dead heat" or whatever.

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