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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Bob Kerrey reverses course and decides to run for Senate (199 comments)

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  •  The Official Rate Is What Will Compel..... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, Setsuna Mudo

    ....low-information voters to believe the employment situation is improving and reward Obama.  The people who will decide the election won't register 300,000 new jobs per month versus 100,000 new jobs per month.....but they will be able to register an 8% unemployment rate having declined from 9% unemployment.  Far as I'm concerned, the only figure that matters politically is the percentage figure unemployment rate.  

    •  In what world do people care about that? (0+ / 0-)

      I have seen no references, none zip zero zilch, to unemployment rates in this election.

      But nobody's buying flowers from the flower lady.

      by Rich in PA on Thu Mar 01, 2012 at 07:17:30 AM PST

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      •  So you don't watch the news? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Mark27, LordMike

        The only statistic average people really absorb and remember off the tops of their heads, if any, is the unemployment rate.  It tops the news headlines every time it comes out when we're in, or recovering from, a recession.  I remember even as a kid seeing the unemployment rate getting major headlines through a recession and recovery...but nothing else registered.

        Mark27 is right, the unemployment rate matters a lot.

        Now, I do think there is an outside chance that if the rate doesn't come down much more through the year, but the economic headlines still are very good because people seem to be reentering the workforce and finding jobs, then it's possible those headlines overcome the unemployment rate.  It all depends on how economic news is reported.

        People swallow headlines, and the unemployment rate always tops economic headlines.  But if the headlines stay good even without a declining official rate, that at least helps keep confidence up which is what matters on election day.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Mar 01, 2012 at 07:29:00 AM PST

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        •  unemp rate (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, Inkpen

          If the unemployment rate stays flat or rises because people are flooding back into the work force, that's an easy "elevator pitch" for Dems. The job growth numbers (which are much more consistent from month to month than the unemployment numbers) get a fair amount of attention these days too.

          SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Thu Mar 01, 2012 at 08:27:48 AM PST

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        •  People don't care about the number (0+ / 0-)

          They care about what the number represents. People voting on the economy are voting based on their personal situation and those of their friends and family and neighbors. It's not enough to make the numbers go up or down; you have to actually make people's lives better.

          •  That's not true (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca, stevenaxelrod

            People's votes are influenced by the news.  The number matters.

            Yes people's personal experiences and observations of their own surroundings also matter.  But unless what they see is atypically conspicuous, in either a good or bad direction, most people don't know what to make of what they see around them, because that picture is very muddled.

            The news helps color the picture greatly for most people.  If headlines are good, that matters for people who don't know what to make of what they see in life, and most people don't know what to make of what they see in life.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Mar 01, 2012 at 09:45:26 AM PST

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