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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Bob Kerrey reverses course and decides to run for Senate (199 comments)

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  •  Look at the seats that are up (0+ / 0-)

    Assuming we hold the senate this year with a reduced margin, tell me how in the world we'd be able not to lose at least a net of 3 seats with that list.  It's a tougher battleground than this year.  Which is tough enough.

    The one thing that's true about all Republicans, whether lads or lasses, is the thing they like best is kissing rich peoples' asses.

    by Paleo on Thu Mar 01, 2012 at 07:11:43 AM PST

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    •  I think there's a good chance (4+ / 0-)

      Landrieu loses, but then again, we had a pretty good year last year in Louisiana in terms of legislative elections.  We also may be vulnerable in Alaska and South Dakota, even more likely in Montana, but we'll have to see who they run, if we have retirements, and how it plays out before I'm willing to concede anything.  They certainly aren't as bad as Nebraska, I'd put them more at this year's level of North Dakota, and that's looking like Tossup-Tilt R, not a definite loss.

      I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Thu Mar 01, 2012 at 07:22:34 AM PST

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      •  Aside from perhaps Jindal, who is the most obvious (0+ / 0-)

        candidate? The same can asked about Alaska and South Dakota.

        Also, while we are at it, let's try to start thinking about every other race in 2014 where it's an uphill battle. I don't think we have a good shot at knocking off Roberts or Crapo or the others in deep red states, but we might see a retirement from some of them. Even if we don't, it never hurts to prepare.

        •  I don't think Jindal runs for Senate (0+ / 0-)

          He wants to be President.

          24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

          by HoosierD42 on Thu Mar 01, 2012 at 10:30:25 AM PST

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        •  alright (0+ / 0-)

          LA: Bill Cassidy IS running.  That's what all local sources say.

          SD: Kristi Noem.
          AK: Sean Parnell.

          19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

          by jncca on Thu Mar 01, 2012 at 12:04:18 PM PST

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      •  North Dakota ain't what it used to be (0+ / 0-)

        Aside from the focus on social wedge issues that has become endemic in that region, I somehow doubt very many of the gas drilling people that have invaded the state over the last few years vote Dem.

    •  What did you say in Feb 2005 about 2006? (3+ / 0-)

      Everyone then said we were in for a long GOP majority, that we would lose even more Senate seats in '06.  Dubya's reelection vindicated him on Iraq, etc.

      These types of projections are complete nonsense.  There are too many variables that can and do overcome the early math, so much so that early math isn't worth much.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Mar 01, 2012 at 07:31:46 AM PST

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    •  Actually, it's might be much easier than this year (0+ / 0-)

      because most of the action takes place in blue to very blue states, with strong to very strong incumbents. The most difficult seats for us to old are more difficult in 2014, but the rest of them are much easier. I'd rather have a more narrow battlefield even if the battles themselves are harder.

      Also, there's virtually no guarantee we will lose seats. A net gain of one is pretty easy to envision: losing in Nebraska, North Dakota, and Missouri, but picking up those in Nevada, Arizona, Massachusetts, and Maine. A net gain of two isn't even that hard to imagine. And if we go from 53 to 55 this year and then see Begich, Landreiu, Pryor, and Baucus all lose, we can still hold on even before hopefully knocking off McConnell or Graham.

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