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View Diary: Ohio, Super Tuesday and primary voter psychology (101 comments)

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  •  Romney's floor in November will be 45% (5+ / 0-)

    All of this stuff now really doesn't matter.  Which is also why he's not running on anything now - he doesn't want to make policy statements now when he'd have to cater to the primary base, he'll wait until he's the nominee to make policy more geared towards the center knowing the GOP base will support him anyways.  

    One good thing about Virginia being a lock fro Romney now - he doesn't spend as much focus organizing it now.  

    If Paul isn't in the pocket of Romney I think he might have had a chance to win Virginia as Santorum and Gingrich would have maybe implored their supporters to vote Paul to keep the delegates from Romney.  But now Paul will get blown out something like 70-30 in Virginia.

    •  Probably. (0+ / 0-)

      But how can it hurt to have him pre-defined? Keeping him on that floor can be easy or it can be hard.

      GOP: The Party of Acid rain, Abortion of the American Dream, and Amnesty for Wall Street.

      by Attorney at Arms on Sun Mar 04, 2012 at 10:04:37 AM PST

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    •  Paul could never win heads-up (0+ / 0-)

      His foreign policy is so anathema to the Republican base (as opposed to the Republican-leaning independents) that he could never muster anything like 50% in a head-to-head with Romney. Many Santorum and Gingrich supporters just will not vote for Ron Paul because of his radical isolationism.

      Remember that Virginia is a military state that benefits enormously from defense spending, and that has a lot of influence on the GOP electorate there.

    •  Republicans organize? (1+ / 0-)
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      I thought they just had their billionaires bury their opponents in negative advertizing...all very top down.

    •  I actually put it a hair lower (1+ / 0-)
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      Around 42%.  The right is ticking off women too much to hold more than 40% of that vote at this point.

      Warranted, there's plenty of time, but I don't think they're going to walk back the crazy.  I simply don't think it's possible at this point.

      (-6.25, -6.77) Moderate left, moderate libertarian

      by Lonely Liberal in PA on Sun Mar 04, 2012 at 11:53:26 AM PST

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