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View Diary: New York redistricting: Special master releases draft maps (124 comments)

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  •  "Better than most of the other losing NY Dems"... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    slothlax, Taget, MichaelNY

    Doesn't inspire much confidence, IMO. I think it's a true swing district, but to call Rep. Owens "entrenched" is a stretch.

    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 10:57:55 AM PST

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    •  I agree with okiedem and Kos (7+ / 0-)

      Owens might well owe his Congressional seat to good luck.  But if a Democratic House incumbent can't be said to have at least a good chance of holding an R+1 district (especially one that, while it doesn't have a Democratic tradition, probably isn't hurt by "Partisan Propensity Index" considerations) in a Presidential year that might well favor their party, then Democrats might have a hard road back to control of the House.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 11:11:37 AM PST

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      •  *KingofSpades (eom) (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 11:11:58 AM PST

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      •  This is the year to consolidate (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Taget, SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY, bumiputera

        For the reasons you just outlined, Owens could become entrenched in this election if he can take on a single opponent and win by a healthy enough margin. But he's not there now and I think people underestimate the strength of the GOP. The North Country is classic Republican territory and until Owens actually beats a Republican in a head to head matchup I still see this district as a problem for us.

        "What we really expect out of the Democrats is for them to treat us as they would liked to have been treated." --John Boehner

        by slothlax on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 11:25:49 AM PST

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        •  The counter-argument is that (5+ / 0-)

          Owens has never run in a decent Democratic year, either.

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 11:29:19 AM PST

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          •  That is a good argument (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY, bumiputera

            Don't get me wrong, I like our chances with Owens, I think he threads the needle pretty well and he has a great chance to transform our party's standing in that part of the state if he keeps winning. I remain cautiously optimistic. With an emphasis on caution

            "What we really expect out of the Democrats is for them to treat us as they would liked to have been treated." --John Boehner

            by slothlax on Tue Mar 06, 2012 at 11:55:34 AM PST

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