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View Diary: Republican turnout woes intensify (102 comments)

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  •  Washington State results (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dannyinla, pucklady

    should be disregarded. The 2008 numbers reflect a primary election. Because of budget cuts, 2012 numbers represent a caucus only. That accounts for a 480k decrease between 2008 and 2012 and thus skews the total comparison.

    •  Removing WA and VA (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pucklady, sja

      Removing the two obvious special cases (WA going from primary to caucus, VA not having two major competitors on the ballot) and the total dropoff goes to 6.8%. That doesn't look all that significant, really.

      On the Internet, nobody knows if you're a dog... but everybody knows if you're a jackass.

      by stevemb on Wed Mar 07, 2012 at 11:56:55 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  yes, WA Republicans are energized (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dannyinla, N in Seattle, sja, sulthernao

      and their caucuses had > 4x the 2008 turnout.  

      •  Well, to be completely fair (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        I'm not sure how valid it is to compare caucus results of 2008 and 2012, either. In 2008, the WA Republican Party used primary results to allocate 51% of its delegates. The remaining 49% of the delegates were allocated based on caucus results. It's possible that Rs chose not to attend caucuses in 2008 because the results weren't as important as the results from the primary. Who knows? So again, even comparing caucus results is apple vs oranges.

      •  But to your other point, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        N in Seattle

        Yes, we cannot take this election for granted.  This happy talk about low enthusiasm among Republican voters can suppress Democratic turnout just as effectively as the crappy Jim Crow-like laws being passed by Republican legislatures across the country.

      •  still less than (0+ / 0-)

        2008 dem turnout, iirc.  Can't find it anywhere.

        Ask your barista what her degree is in.

        by happymisanthropy on Wed Mar 07, 2012 at 02:15:21 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's to be expected... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Be Skeptical

          President Obama blew out the election and took nearly 58% of the vote here in 2008. We like our Democrats in presidential races and haven't gone Republican in 28 years. Will we go R this time? Doubt it seriously. However, I think it's dangerous to use incorrect numerical comparisons to draw conclusions about party enthusiasm as is the case in Kos's chart in this diary.

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