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View Diary: Republican turnout woes intensify (102 comments)

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  •  If you remove the problematic states (4+ / 0-)

    VIRGINIA (two nonRomneys not on the ballot)
    MISSOURI (numbers are from a meaningless 2012 primary and do not including the upcoming statewide caucus)
    WASHINGTON (comparing a 2008 primary to a 2012 caucus)
    IDAHO (comparing a 2008 primary to a 2012 caucus)

    the numbers change dramatically.

    2008 (w/o those four states) - 7,853,700
    2012 (w/o those four states) - 7,688,011

    That's about a 2% drop-off and not kos's reassuring 13% drop-off.

    Shouting from the mountaintop that "Republican turnout woes intensify" is one of the more irresponsible statements I've seen here in some time.  

    •  And adjusted numbers for Super Tuesday (2+ / 0-)
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      Be Skeptical, sulthernao

      also show a less dramatic drop-off, but a drop-off all the same.

      Leaving off the numbers for Virginia and Idaho, you get:

      2008 - 3,511,356
      2012 - 3,385,533

      That's about a 4% drop-off.

      Based on those numbers, you could still argue a certain level of apathy/discontent/disinterest from the GOP base. Even a 4% drop-off during a tightly contested primary day is big news, but it's nowhere near kos's meaningless number.

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