Skip to main content

View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 3/9 (331 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  I love the assumption (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, bumiputera, tietack, Bharat

    "yeah, Oregon is pretty much just like Washington".

    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 11:22:58 AM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  Aside from that, you know... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, bumiputera, tietack

      There are virtually no major population centers east of the Cascades in Oregon? I mean, yeah, there's Bend, but it's demographically young, not that heavily LDS (11%), and not all that big (<100,000). There's also not as strong of a white-collar business culture in the Portland area as there is in the Seattle area. Romney will win big in Washington County, but Rep. Paul is going to cut into his margins in Multnomah County. Meanwhile, the pro-labor Republicans in Salem, Pendleton, and Umatilla aren't likely to be impressed by him.

      Romney will still probably win Oregon, but it's naive to think Oregon is "pretty much just like Washington". It's not.

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 12:39:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Salem is fundie country. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, tietack

        I don't mean that derogatorily.  I grew up in that area, and so did my dad, but its the bible belt of Oregon.  Marion, Yamhill, Linn, and to a lesser extent Polk and rural/exurban Clackamas County are where it's at.

        The primary is complicated, though.  I looked at the 2002 and 2006 Republican gubernatorial primaries which both featured moderate/conservative splits, in fact both had 2/3 of the same candidates, social conservative Kevin Mannix and business Republican Ron Saxton.  The problem is that in 2002 the moderate vote was split with Jack Roberts of Eugene, so Mannix won, and in 2006 Jason Atkinson split the conservative vote and Saxton won, so it was hard to get a good read.

        But overall, I'd expect Romney to do well in places over 10% Mormon, which is mostly in Eastern Oregon, like Malheur County (which is less than 200 miles from Utah).  He'd do well in liberal-moderate cities like Portland, Beaverton, Hillsboro, Eugene, Corvallis, Ashland, Bend, etc.  He'd do well in wealthier areas like eastern Springfield, Lake Oswego, Happy Valley, etc.

        Santorum should do better in rural Oregon, in the Willamette Valley outside of the major cities, in some exurbs and suburbs that have very hard-right religious communities, in Southern Oregon (perhaps aside from Jackson County), he should at elast split the coast, and run especially well in red and light blue areas like Columbia, Tillamook, Coos, and Curry Counties.  Places that are heavily evangelical/pentecostal/assemblies of god/you get the point like Jefferson County, Klamath County, Josephine County, etc, should be good for him.

        Overall if it comes down to the two of them (and Paul), I couldn't call it, but it should be within 10 points either way.

        I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

        by James Allen on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 01:02:16 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  My gut: Santorum can win Clakamas Co (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          It's as close as there is to a fundamentalist base in the PDX metro area.

          "I hope; therefore, I can live."
          For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

          by tietack on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 01:22:04 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  and in my area (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JGibson

            in Washington County, meaning Tualatin/Tigard/Sherwood, it seems like most of the Republicans in and around here are social conservatives.  Sure, some of them are wealthy (Tualatin, Bull Mountain), and I shouldn't discount them, but my next door neighbors and others on the street are extremely religious social cons, someone in the neighborhood had a Perry sign before Perry got in.  This area has some serious church communities.  I mean Tigard is like 60% Obama, but the Republicans that are here seem to be pretty much social conservatives.  In Beaverton and Hillsboro, the biggest cities in the county, Romney should romp.  Further out in the county Romney will be weaker.

            I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

            by James Allen on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 01:31:33 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Also, national median household income: $51,914 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack

        Oregon's medial household income: $49,260   
        Washington's median household income: $57,244

        As you said, Washington has a more white collar economy.  The whole state is built around a wealthier culture than Oregon.

        I think that makes Romney weaker here.

        I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

        by James Allen on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 01:12:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

  • Recommended (130)
  • Community (62)
  • Elections (39)
  • 2016 (37)
  • Environment (36)
  • Bernie Sanders (35)
  • Culture (30)
  • Hillary Clinton (30)
  • Republicans (29)
  • Media (29)
  • Climate Change (27)
  • Education (23)
  • Congress (23)
  • Spam (23)
  • Civil Rights (22)
  • Trans-Pacific Partnership (21)
  • Labor (21)
  • Barack Obama (21)
  • Texas (20)
  • Law (20)
  • Click here for the mobile view of the site