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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 3/9 (331 comments)

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  •  I just finished reading the entire FL SC opinion (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, dc1000, MichaelNY

    and I got these takeaways for how they may rule on the congressional redistricting:
    1. Corrine Brown's district could be in trouble based on this ruling, to some degree. An alternative that would have it only go to Gainesville and Daytona Beach with about the same black population as they talked about in the opinion seems consistent with their analysis of Districts 6 and 9.
    2. The Orlando mishmash to protect Daniel Webster may be in for trouble, and if Corrine Brown's seat no longer stretches to Orlando, that throws another wrench into the plan.
    3. The Court did not look much at the St. Pete/Tampa/Bradenton configuration. That district is only about a third non-Hispanic white (SD-19). However, the senator here currently in SD-18 (Sen. Joyner) is black. Last time I checked, Kathy Castor was not. But if I look at the Senate opinion as a whole, the Bill Young district with the St. Pete bite out of it may be in trouble.
    4. The Alcee Hastings seat looks likely to pass muster. The I-95 type seat was rejected in favor of the one that has a lot of swamp to the west and takes bites to the east of black voters.
    5. Justice Pariente is a much stronger jurist than Chief Justice Canady.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 01:31:51 PM PST

    •  Interesting. (0+ / 0-)

      Let me quickly draw up a new district for Corrine Brown using those suggestions you floated.

      If it's roughly as AA as it is under the passed map, it shouldn't be a problem (hell, she lives in Jacksonville, so it would actually be better for her).

      Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

      by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 01:37:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The Senate part of the opinion (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        looked favorably on a 42.4% black VAP located solely within Duval County, but that is not possible for a Congressional seat. However, it will be interesting to see how far south you need to go to get up to 42.4%.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 01:46:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's hard I found, but doable. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Esepecially if you can cut precincts, which DRA can't.

          Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

          by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 02:04:35 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  What does a fairly clean (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Jacksonville-Gainesville-Daytona map get you?

            "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

            by SouthernINDem on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 02:05:49 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Roughly 40% VAP black (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              but I was pretty rough in my attempt and DRA is slow for some reason.

              Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

              by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 02:11:04 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  What is the political breakdown? (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

                by SouthernINDem on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 02:16:11 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Obama got >60% of the vote here. (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  ChadmanFL, MichaelNY

                  Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

                  by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 02:21:32 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  That would fit the opinion's logic (4+ / 0-)

                    where they look at the percentage of Democrats, black Democrats, and Democratic performance.
                    I like this totality of the circumstance reasoning. I never liked the hard an fast numbers used.

                    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

                    by SouthernINDem on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 02:29:15 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

            •  I tried on Florida Redistricting site (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              It is impossible to get a VRA black VAP majority seat around JAX, without going into Orlando.

              But the current FL-03 is not black VAP majority, nor was it in 2000. What you can try is to match closely to its current black VAP percentage.

    •  Some thoughts (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      1. Maybe not. My guess is to maintain the black VAP percentage of the current FL-03, one has to have JAX downtown + NW Orlando, throwing either the east side of Gainesville or Daytona Beach.

      One can argue FL-05 can have a Jax-Daytona-Orlando configuration, and there should be a community of interest seat from Tallahassee to Gainesville. But the justices outright rejected the coi argument, only in favor of compactness.

      2. Once this one is set, and it has to go into Orlando, not much you can do about FL-10 and FL-07. You might get rid of that nasty tail of FL-10 (to get downtown and east side of Orlando) but the basic composition of these two won't change much.

      3. I read this as bad news. It may not be possible to put St Pete back into Young's district, without causing Castor's seat to retrogress.

      4. Agree. But FL-21, FL-22, FL-23 might need some shuffle around. This may guarantee a Dem pick up FL-22, instead of just leaning.

      5. I think Canady was put on the bench when Charlie was still palling around as a Republican.

    •  Huh? I thought the court OK'd the Congress map (0+ / 0-)

      Or am I wrong?

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