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View Diary: Who Represents IL-10? (Part 1: State Senators) (16 comments)

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  •  Good observations (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits, KingofSpades

    The overall IL-10 as I recall is now about 63% Obama so it's not quite as blue as it's bluest state senate districts, but vastly more Democratic than the GOP-leaning state senate districts that overlap it.

    I've always been of the opinion that this seat is so Democratic that we could win it with a some-dude, assuming at least a politically neutral year.  Despite it's moderate Republican history, this seat did quite clearly vote for John Kerry over Bush and Republicans don't hold many seats that did that, even after their best wave year since 1994.

    Add in the fact that redistricting yanked some of Dold's best precincts and put in more loyally Democratic ones and I really don't see how Dold gets another term absent another GOP wave year.  Yeah, candidate recruitment matters, but this is a seat we would have gotten a long time ago if not for the competent, popular incumbent Mark Kirk holding it up until 2008, and then the 2010 wave screwing us.

    •  Agreed (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      re: your first paragraph, I don't have time right now to do a detailed analysis of state rep districts/local elected officials, but I did sketch the state house seats on DRA - several of them are much closer to the district's overall lean (at least by Obama numbers) and are held by Democrats.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Fri Mar 16, 2012 at 12:05:04 PM PDT

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    •  I think the big question is (0+ / 0-)

      How much of this district's outlier status was about Mark Kirk and 2010 (or about Dan Seals) and how much is it about the district itself?

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Mar 16, 2012 at 05:49:38 PM PDT

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      •  I'm sure it's a little from Column A (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        and a little from Column B. But what everyone keeps forgetting is that this is not the same district as it was during the past decade. I highly doubt Mike Madigan opened up DRA and thought, "hmm, let me try to increase the Obama percentage of this seat." This district was specifically drawn with the understanding that many areas split their tickets, and was specially designed to work around that issue. That's something that I haven't seen the "IL-10 is Lean R" crowd acknowledge.

        21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Fri Mar 16, 2012 at 05:59:37 PM PDT

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        •  I'd like to learn more about that (0+ / 0-)

          What about a down-ticket analysis of the old IL-10, for comparison's sake?

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Fri Mar 16, 2012 at 06:00:30 PM PDT

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          •  Oh boy (0+ / 0-)

            I haven't even gotten around to a comprehensive down-ticket analysis of the current IL-10, and I still haven't finished editing this paper. But the short answer to that can be found in that Cook County map of the 2010 Governor race that you pulled up yesterday - many of those blood red areas in Northfield and New Trier townships that got removed from the district voted for Obama in 2008, while the parts that voted for Pat Quinn are the ones that got to stay.

            21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Fri Mar 16, 2012 at 06:02:44 PM PDT

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            •  How much did the Quinn percentage shift? (0+ / 0-)

              I can't easily find Quinn/Brady results by the old/current districts.  Also, the new one voted heavily for Kirk, but is that still a drop from the old one?  ("Home area" effect screws this up to some extent but I'm still curious.)

              26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

              by Xenocrypt on Fri Mar 16, 2012 at 06:38:12 PM PDT

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              •  I'm not sure about the exact (0+ / 0-)

                Quinn % shift. But in addition to the removal of the blood-red precincts as shown on that map of Cook County gov results, they also added in Zion and Avon townships in Lake County, which as you can see from this map (assuming the link works) had quite a few precincts going for Pat Quinn.

                21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                by sapelcovits on Fri Mar 16, 2012 at 06:47:00 PM PDT

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