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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 3/21 (383 comments)

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  •  How much you wanna bet? (1+ / 0-)
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    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 08:47:19 PM PDT

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    •  heh (1+ / 0-)
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      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 08:54:20 PM PDT

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      •  I really don't know how to feel about this one (1+ / 0-)
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        I see Romney winning MKE County, the Circle of Ignorance (he won Ohio's CoI), Racine/Kenosha, Dane County (with its very few GOP voters), and possibly some other urban-ish counties like Brown and Outagamie. But I see Santorum winning pretty much everything else. So I'm not sure. CD-wise this is how I see it:

        CD-01: Likely Romney (Racine, Kenosha, parts of MKE and Wauke$ha should do it for him)
        CD-02: Lean Santorum (rurals drown out Dane)
        CD-03: Likely Santorum (a pretty rural district)
        CD-04: Safe Romney (MI-13 seems to have been an aberration; all other inner-city districts go Romney)
        CD-05: Likely Romney (Circle of Ignorance)
        CD-06: Tossup (Ozaukee should go Romney but no idea about the rest)
        CD-07: Likely Santorum (mostly rural)
        CD-08: Lean Santorum (I can see Brown and Outagamie going Romney, but I'd guess rural counties favor Santorum)

        22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 09:05:49 PM PDT

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        •  Why does Romney win the CoI? (0+ / 0-)

          If that's Wisconsin's most rabidly conservative area, you'd think it'd be Santorum country.

          24, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

          by HoosierD42 on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 09:26:23 PM PDT

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        •  hand almost all of the SE to Romney, (0+ / 0-)

          plus Madison, Beloit, Janesville, Green Bay, and some or all of a bunch of other more or less major urban areas, but in the rest of the state give pretty much everything that isn't a major urban area to Santorum, and he cleans up pretty well, getting at least a narrow win.

          I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

          by James Allen on Thu Mar 22, 2012 at 03:05:24 AM PDT

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          •  Don't rule out strategic voting in Dane County (0+ / 0-)

            Wisconsin has an open primary, and enough political plugged in liberals that I'd say strategic voting is more likely here. It is the former home of Dan Savage, after all.

        •  I don't know (0+ / 0-)

          CD 1 I see going toward Santorum. It's a very economically depressed region that won't take kindly to Romney's vulture capitalism.

          You're right about CD 2. Every cycle the right puts up some far right religious nut who thinks they can make hay out of the gay thing against Tammy. Sounds like Santorum country.

          Agree on CD 3, 5, & 7.

          I'd call 8 a tossup. I agree with your analysis, but I think that Brown and Outagamie are big enough to outweigh any advantage Santorum has in the rural area.

          6 is probably lean Santorum. It's mostly rural.

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