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View Diary: Supreme Court, Affordable Care Act: does the Anti-Injunction Act stop a mandate ruling until 2015? (75 comments)

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  •  Roberts is very political... (5+ / 0-)
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    Losty, milton333, andrewdski, ER Doc, Sylv

    He's going to punt this until 2013 if he feels it would be ruled constitutional.  He's also a corporatist meaning he'll side with the insurance co's who need the mandate now so ultimately I think this will be found constitutional by a 6-3 or even 7-2 vote.  

    However you never know with this court, if Roberts takes it up now, than I'd bet my house that it will be stricken down in totality in order to completely reshape the 2012 Presidential election.  

    Another interesting thing to take note of is McConnell's grand plans he mentioned last week about taking the ACA apart piece by piece if he gets the majority in 2012 - that seems to tell me that he's ultimately not confident that SCOTUS will rule on it - so he's going to make it a big campaign point.  Because if he felt it would be ruled on now, either it would be found unconstitutional and completely undone, or found constitutional and it would be much, much harder to run against given it would have got conservative wing support from SCOTUS.  

    I guess if Kennedy is the only stray vote in the 5-4 decision to find it constitutional that the GOP could still run against it - blaming activist justices - but I don't think they'd want to call out Kennedy like that given his swing vote nature has been landing with the conservative wing more often than not.  Roberts would want to give him protection on this vote to keep him eating with the Conservative table.

    If it's punted it will eventually be found constitutional.  If they take it up now - it's doomed.

    •  FYI: It's been persuasively argued that 5-4 (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Losty, 57andFemale, cpresley, lysias, ER Doc

      to uphold is not a possibility.

      If the Court splits 4-4, Roberts (it's contended) will be the fifth vote to reverse, and if it's 5-3 to uphold, Roberts will be the sixth on that side in order to control the opinion.

      Am I right, or am I right? - The Singing Detective

      by Clem Yeobright on Mon Mar 26, 2012 at 07:37:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Interesting (1+ / 0-)
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      I certainly wouldn't bet the house on the law being stricken if they take it up this year.  I understand the politics of this, but until we get a clear sense of where Kennedy stands, I wouldn't be willing to say that.

      Then there is still the severability issue.  It is possible that the ACA as a whole might survive the striking down of the mandate.  Wouldn't that be something?  I'm not sure what happens then.

      This diary has certainly woken me up to the possibility of SCOTUS simply punting on this.  Note that if they do, it would likely be until 2015, when the mandate takes effect, not 2013 as you have been saying.  (Maybe you are saying someone will challenge a different aspect of the law next year?)

      I do have to wonder if hearing arguments on the AIA aspect of the case indicates the Court is looking for a way to avoid this whole thing.  Presumably today's hearing might help answer that question.

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