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View Diary: President Obama, Mitt Romney, and the path to 270 electoral votes (261 comments)

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  •  this analysis, while thought provoking and well (12+ / 0-)

    done is rather moot, in my opinion.

    If any of you think that what the Walker/Kochs and other groups have done in the recent months in terms of advertising and air time is considered "blanketing the airwaves", then you're in for a rude awakening.

    As soon as Romney's nomination is official, tens of millions of dollars of both corporate and private money will pour in. He will give mass advertising a whole new meaning. Such a heavy media presence is guaranteed so shift the race far away from the polling that we see now. (Not necessarily to his favor mind you, but it will shift one way or another.)

    A shudder runs down my spine as I think how Obama is going to have to defend against 4 months of rising gasoline prices (4.60$ in over here in Chicago), and a withering, channel-to-channel advertising onslaught from Romney.

    Socialist Fuckstick No. 308273

    by culturejammer on Sun Mar 25, 2012 at 07:32:49 PM PDT

    •  O campaign has $87 million cash on hand, right now (12+ / 0-)

      and they'll raise that much again in the next two months.  As soon as Rmoney and his groups start the air war, O will answer pretty much dollar for dollar.  If he even waits for R to start.  

      The question for me, actually, is how much of the vaunted PAC money will actually materialize for Mitt, if he continues to appear such a dubious proposition.  Surely a bunch of it will eventually peel off and head to the congressional races.

      •  Yeah.... (4+ / 0-)

        ... by and large, people don't get rich by backing losers, so I'm inclined to think there's going to be less money behind Romney than we would expect.  But time will tell; it only takes one deranged billionaire to tip the balance considerably.

      •  The big R money want O out. Bottom line! (0+ / 0-)

        They'll spend as much as possible. And support whoever has the R after his name. A few of them can donate 100 million dollars at a time to PAC's they control.

        They can say anything they want to about Obama and as often as they want. The networks are gonna reap a bundle.

        For us GOTV more important than ever as are donations - big and small to Obama or his PACs (well, of course they are not his -tee hee) .

        Progressives will win when we convince a majority that they, too, are Progressive.

        by auapplemac on Mon Mar 26, 2012 at 12:32:13 AM PDT

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      •  Uh - you're forgetting that because of Citizens... (0+ / 0-)

        ...United, that at ANY point in the election, literally HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS could be poured into Romney's campaign from corporations and Wall Street.

        Make no mistake - Obama is the underdog in this race when it comes to money - when he wins - which I'm convinced he will, barring all caveat events - I guarantee that Romney's campaign will have outspent the President of the United States.

        •  no one's forgetting Citizens. I think it's safe (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          virginislandsguy

          to assume that Mitt ends up with somewhere between 500 and 800 mill, UNLESS some of those big donors start bailing on him as a lost cause.  But let's say 5 to 8, of which 100 mill will already have been spent on the primary.  

          Obama will certainly top 500 million -- in terms of small donors alone, that's $250 avg total from 2 million donors, and we know he'll get big $$ too.   Some months ago his people were cautioning against the idea that he would have a "billion" to spend, but 500 mill is entirely realistic.

          So if Mitt ends up outspending him at all, it will be a ratio of maybe 1.5:1 -- nothing at all like the 5:1 or 10:1 that Mitt has needed to put away his lame-ass and crazy primary opponents.  

          Of course GOTV is vital, and giving is vital.  But Mitt is not going to win this through some kind of massive air superiority.  That's not even getting into the question of who is more vulnerable to damage from ads at this point...

    •  Remember that Romney's big donors are at the limit (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      vcmvo2, TofG

      while Obama has plenty of deep pockets still to plumb. Not to mention all the 'little guys' who will give $25 or $50 or $100 more than once. Romney doesn't seem to have many of those, at least not at the moment.

      Whether they will begin to donate to him -- with that 'I'm So Rich, So Very, Very Rich' persona -- is still to be seen.

      A weapon that is also a treasure is certain to be used.

      by wonderful world on Sun Mar 25, 2012 at 08:51:37 PM PDT

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      •  I don't think the Republican base is going to be (6+ / 0-)

        all that eager to donate their time or money to someone they don't like or trust to actually share their beliefs. Between that, Romney's personal wealth and the out-of-touch One-Percenter attitude he has, the Republican's normally-reliable GOTV machine may be grinding some gears this year.

        Can I have my vision back? I will live outside your city walls. - "Ride With Me" Steppenwolf

        by 135790 on Sun Mar 25, 2012 at 09:00:10 PM PDT

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      •  That's what Super PACs are good for (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        auapplemac, wonderful world, bryduck

        If you're giving in secret, how can they limit what you give?

        Short answer: you can't.  Romney's key donors will not max out.  We won't even be entirely sure how much they give.

        The bigger question is whether the amount of money the SuperPACs will spend will actually help them.  Remember that in order to win as much as he did, he (I include his PACs -- anybody who believes they are "uncoordinated" is a total fool: nobody spends that kind of money without strings, and you don't get strings if the nominee doesn't know who's he's in debt to.  A hell of sort of bribe otherwise) needed to spend 7x what his opponent spent, since the negative ads weren't that useful after a certain point.

        I don't doubt that Romney and his backers won't outspend Obama 2012.  It just isn't clear if they will be able to outspend Obama 2012 enough to deal with the limitations of negative advertising combined with a really unappealing candidate.

        Mitt Romney is a T-1000 sent back from the Future to warn about the upcoming Robot Apocolypse.

        by mbayrob on Sun Mar 25, 2012 at 11:15:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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