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View Diary: ObamaCare is Going Down. Premiums Didn’t. We Need Health Care, Not Insurance. (350 comments)

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  •  i agree that the mandate is likely toast... (18+ / 0-)

    i am pretty sure however, that the court doesn't want to wade in and rule on all aspects of a very complex law.  i'm guessing that they will find some elegant maneuver to avoid having to dig through and piece by piece rule on all of the elements.  the most simple way for them to do that would probably be to invalidate the whole mess.

    if there is a silver lining in this, it may be that it might spur some of the more liberal states to take the problem on themselves and create single payer systems,  that is if the expected backlash can be channeled that way instead of into finding another way to make a mandate work.

    i'm part of the 99% - america's largest minority

    by joe shikspack on Thu Apr 05, 2012 at 08:29:34 AM PDT

      •  no matter which way this falls out... (13+ / 0-)

        it's going to be a mess.  if by some miracle the court gives the law a pass, we're stuck with a crappy law that channels necessary resources to corporate profits and still doesn't guarantee access to quality healthcare to all americans.   if they just dump the mandate and leave the rest of the law intact, we've got an unworkable system that will just give an excuse to insurance companies to jack up rates further into the stratosphere.  if they chuck the whole thing, we're back to square one, with the wingers emboldened and their media wurlitzer auxiliary promoting the idea that all progressive healthcare solutions are similarly unconstitutional.

        i'm part of the 99% - america's largest minority

        by joe shikspack on Thu Apr 05, 2012 at 08:44:46 AM PDT

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        •  It is going to be a mess (7+ / 0-)

          I hate this bill but even I don't want it to go down because there is one way that it might help me a lot, if things work out just right, and not for a couple more years if I can keep my health together for that long. So for selfish reasons for myself and millions of other people who might get some help, I really don't want the mess that will ensue if this goes down the tubes.  Because I don't think the Dems have a back up plan at all and we no longer have big majorities in both houses, nor do we have much hope of getting them anytime soon.  If our government doesn't start representing the people instead of the 1% we are just going to continue to have 'throw the bums out' elections for god knows how long.

          "Justice is a commodity"

          by joanneleon on Thu Apr 05, 2012 at 10:12:58 AM PDT

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          •  Further (8+ / 0-)

            It would be different if the situation had not devolved into a crisis level problem for millions of Americans. If it was a tough situation but still manageable, I might say, well, if it gets struck down then maybe we will have a real chance at Medicare for All.  But I don't think there's a snowball's chance in hell of that happening for at least a decade, maybe more.  So that means a LOT of suffering and a LOT of bankruptcy and loss until something gets figured out.

            Plus, the whole thing about having faith and benefit of the doubt for our party with respect to solving the health care problem? Well I think that is pretty well shot.

            I hope I am wrong. Another possibility is that the effect of a worsening, hellish situation will spark an unexpected radical change.  It would come at a high human cost though.  But I guess anything is possible.  There should be a whole 'nother branch of an Occupy-like movement focused on health care and in the streets and in their faces.  That actually might happen sooner rather than later.  The thing that always haunts me about that is that I now know what it is like to be really sick, death bed sick and then chronically sick and people in my shoes or worse are not too good at getting out on the streets or getting beat up and arrested by the likes of NYPD.  So a lot of us might just die silently and slowly, not even being strong enough to stand up for ourselves well enough.  

            "Justice is a commodity"

            by joanneleon on Thu Apr 05, 2012 at 10:18:43 AM PDT

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    •  Maybe, although the easy way (13+ / 0-)

      is to strike it all down.  They do not have to pick and choose, just say it goes to heart and strike it all down.   There are at least 3 votes for that I think: Scalia, Thomas, and Alito.  I would never count on Roberts for decency (what did we say in 2005-- filibuster his ass, yes, that's an I told you so), so it comes down to Kennedy.

      It may spur on some states.  

      If this goes down, the madate is dead and the "market approach" is also.  It would seem to be single payer (Medicare for all) or nothing.  I suspect it will be nothing for a while.  

      In the long run, single payer is the only way.  

      I'm from the Elizabeth Warren and Darcy Burner Wing of the Democratic Party!

      by TomP on Thu Apr 05, 2012 at 08:34:20 AM PDT

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    •  I think that speaks dire consequences for the bill (3+ / 0-)

      Indeed, Joe.

      I'm hoping this does spur more states to take action, but we can't give up on a national solution either whether a medicare Buy In or not.

      Pro Life??? Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers! - George Carlin - ROUND 2: Vote! Send me to Netroots Nation!

      by priceman on Thu Apr 05, 2012 at 08:49:27 AM PDT

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    •  It would depend on the third day of oral arguments (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      joe shikspack, priceman

      If SCOTUS finds that the ACA is not severable, then the whole law goes away.

      Otherwise (if I remember correctly) the issues they heard were on whether the law was ripe (meaning could they decide on it now), is the Congress empowered through the Commerce Clause to compel persons to enter a market and punish them if they don't, and whether Medicaid expansion can be forced on the States.

    •  The MA prototype would go down too (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      joe shikspack

      if the mandate aspect does not pass muster. I live in MA on a modest income and have been unable to afford the health insurance that is offered in the state, but since I make over 3x Federal poverty level I do not qualify for any premium subsidy. There is a LARGE income "donut hole" between what insurance costs and what is affordable at incomes from 3x Federal poverty level to the $100K plus a couple my age would need to afford to purchase health insurance.

      The system we have in MA does not nearly meet the challenge of making affordable health care a reality. We could have, and should have done better with ACA rather than simply mimicking the inadequate, and legally questionable, MA mandate system.

      "to gobern dat wicked natur, dat is de pint. You is sharks, sartin; but if you gobern de shark in you, why den you be angel; for all angel is not'ing more dan de shark well goberned." Herman Melville

      by ovals49 on Thu Apr 05, 2012 at 02:33:13 PM PDT

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