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View Diary: IN-Sen, IN-Gov: Bipartisan poll shows Richard Lugar in peril (116 comments)

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  •  there are actually a lot more "lean" Repub states (2+ / 0-)
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    Matt Z, MichaelNY

    than conventional wisdom and most "battleground maps" are showing. I counted as states with leads for Romney of under 10%, admittedly based on minimal polling evidence in some cases, as:

    MO, AZ, TN, TX, SC, GA, KY, MT, SD, IN, NE-2. ND could well be too, since it usually goes very much in line with SD, but hasn't been polled.

    In fact the genuinely solid Republican states in the usual sense of 10+ polling leads only total 67 EV and 12 states. By contrast Obama has leads of 10% or more over Romney in 17 states + DC totalling already 227 EV (WA, OR, CA, NM, MN, WI, MI, IL, ME, VT, NY, CT, MA, RI, DE, MD, NJ). This includes 4 states which are regularly cited as "lean" or even "toss-up" - NM, MN, MI, WI.

    None of the Red state "leaners" are particularly close right now - all are in the 4-9 point range - but it is an indication that if Romney's campaign is as bad a trainwreck as McCain's was and Obama gets some favorable economic wind coming into November, there is potential for a really crushing win; and from the other point of view, Obama has a pretty rock-solid base of Electoral College votes to rely on which take him quite close to the magic number, allowing him to focus heavily on the critical marginal states like CO, VA, OH, FL which can take him to 270.

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