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View Diary: Sunday Train: Did Governor Brown Save California's HSR? (30 comments)

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  •  I believe that is in the Business Plan ... (2+ / 0-)
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    RunawayRose, Judge Moonbox

    ... let me look (btw, while I'm looking, its here (pdf) ...

    ... ok, its in Chapter 5, page 5-16. These figures are not initial ridership, but after five years of "ramp-up", as experience in European HSR is that there is about a 5 year ramp-up period before the system hits steady state (either stable ridership or growing, depending on conditions of broader transport demand between the populations connected by the corridor).

    The modelling also includes more pessimistic assumptions and more optimistic assumptions, for a low and high model projection, which are the two numbers I give.

    Phase 1: 20.1m ~ 32.6m
    Bay to Basin: 14.0m ~ 24.3m
    HSR-First Service: 7.4m to 13.5m

    Note that the ramp-up period for the system extensions is, effectively, on the increment between the prior and following system. So if the HSR First Service operated for 5 years and hit 8m, and the Bay to Basin was then launched and was heading to 15m, the ramp-up would be on the 7m increment ~ something around 2.8m additional by the end of the first year, something like 5.6m additional by the end of the third year.

    The ramp-up that they are using, and the existing HSR corridor ridership profiles that they base it on, is on page 5-14.

    (When comparing these riderships to transit boardings, be careful to account for the fact that the average miles per trip will be far more on the HSR than on a normal transit system).

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    by BruceMcF on Mon Apr 09, 2012 at 06:50:38 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

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