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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Connie Mack mocks studying drug addiction, despite his 'concern' (44 comments)

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  •  Would that be the adjustments though? (0+ / 0-)

    Surely if it was warm weather causing early hires that would show however or whether they adjusted or not, wouldn't it?

    Anyway, the general improvement goes all the way back to September so it clearly wasn't just a winter apparition.

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Thu Apr 12, 2012 at 07:06:04 AM PDT

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    •  There's no question that things are getting better (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      thematt523, itskevin, TofG

      Anything under 400k is considered positive and we're under that even with these fluky problems caused by seasonal adjustments. I think the truth is just that the recovery was never as strong as it appeared to by over the late winter but is stronger that it will appear from the March jobs report, weekly unemployment claims that will come out over the next few weeks and probably the April jobs report.

      26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Thu Apr 12, 2012 at 07:08:55 AM PDT

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      •  Sure (0+ / 0-)

        380k is still lower than all but two weeks in 2011 and those were both in the lead up to Christmas. And there were two weeks in January higher than this when 275,000 jobs were created that month. But your analysis makes sense to me. Nate had a detailed post not so long ago that suggested 150k jobs a month was the above/below figure for re-election. That looks consistent with what we are seeing at the moment.

        "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

        by conspiracy on Thu Apr 12, 2012 at 07:16:00 AM PDT

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      •  Here's a good source for those that are interested (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin
        And Nomura thinks as much as one half of the decline since early January this year may reflect distortions in seasonal adjustment.  Looking ahead, the best guess is that distortions are likely to be neutral in the next couple of months, and then turn modestly negative in the spring:

        We expect the US economy to continue to grow at a modest pace in the coming months, but a lesson from the past few years of jobless claims data [as illustrated in chart one above] is that the February decline should not be expected to persist. And, while our analysis indicates that February-March seasonally adjusted claims are understated, it also suggests overstating in early January. As such, the undistorted trend likely lies  between the extremes, closer to 370-380k.

        http://ftalphaville.ft.com/...

        26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

        by okiedem on Thu Apr 12, 2012 at 07:17:12 AM PDT

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    •  The seasonal adjustment in Jan/Feb (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701

      would have been positive so the job creation numbers would have been higher seasonally adjusted than without.

      However, in reality, the seasonal adjustment would overstate job creation because the actual hiring in Jan/Feb was stronger than that in the average Jan/Feb. Something like this:

      Let B be the seasonal adjustment.

      Average Jan/Feb job creation number = Actual number + B.
      2012 Jan/Feb job creation number = Actual number + B + extra hires due to warm weather.
      Hypothetically accurate Jan/Feb job creation number = Actual number + B - adjustment for extra hires + extra hires.

      In the unlikely event that the above makes much sense...

      •  that's about right (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        okiedem, itskevin, hankmeister

        The actual unadjusted increase in jobs in Feb was 902k. The seasonally adjusted increase was 240k, so the seasonal adjustment they used was -662k.

        http://bls.gov/... (table B-1)

        If they had a method to vary the seasonal adjustment to reflect the actual Feb 2012 weather instead of the average Feb weather, they would have used a bigger adjustment. For example, they could have used a seasonal adjustment of -700k so the seasonally adjusted job number would have been 202k instead of 240k.

        SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Thu Apr 12, 2012 at 08:27:10 AM PDT

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        •  So how do you see it in general? (0+ / 0-)

          Same as okie, things weren't as good as they seemed a month back and now they haven't suddenly declined quite as bad as some people think?

          "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

          by conspiracy on Thu Apr 12, 2012 at 08:35:03 AM PDT

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          •  probably (0+ / 0-)

            March was also unseasonably warm in most of the country, so I suspect April will be artificially depressed a bit also. By May all of this will likely be over with.

            SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Thu Apr 12, 2012 at 09:00:28 AM PDT

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