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View Diary: How much will negative advertising affect Obama? (142 comments)

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  •  Romney is actually worse than Kerry (0+ / 0-)

    Because Kerry never really had a base problem. Romney would be more like if Gephardt were the nominee.

    I think it's Obama's election to lose. If he gets his voters out he wins. You're also right that the Republicans will have to prioritize their time and money. In 2008 it was clear for weeks in advance that Mccain had no chance, and the Republicans were already working on trying to spin their upcoming defeat. If Romney similarly looks weak in October, you're going to see them move hard for the consolation prize: the Senate.  

    •  Yes, and it's not complacency to worry about that (3+ / 0-)
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      Possiamo, mchestnutjr, ddn

      I'm really scared of the scenario where Obama wins a narrow re-election, but we lose the Senate and fail to take back the House.  While not as bad as the President Romney + Majority Leader McConnell + Speaker Boehner apocalyptic scenario, the four years of political chaos that would ensue from this stalemate would tarnish Obama's entire legacy and make it very likely that a Tea Party type becomes president in 2016.  Obama would be completely impotent for his entire second term, and it would be the kind of image that sticks with voters for decades.

      So, it's not complacency to say that we've pretty much got the presidency sown up, and need to focus primarily on Congressional races.  Quite the opposite -- focusing on a presidential contest we've already won just because it gives us the warm and fuzzies to read positive polling data will lead to a misallocation of resources, energy and attention.

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