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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Linda Parks airs the weirdest TV ad of the cycle (so far) (125 comments)

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  •  Romney now 4 pts ahead in Ras poll (0+ / 0-)

    OK, now color me worried. Something seems to be happening, first the Fox poll yesterday, and now this?

    •  I would not put much credence in either poll, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Amber6541, MichaelNY

      given their provenance.

      Both of them are probably trying to push the "Republicans and R-leaning independents are uniting behind Romney" message.

    •  Oh man oh God oh man oh God! (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, Theston, dc1000

      26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Fri Apr 13, 2012 at 07:00:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  A Rasmussen poll (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, tk421, MichaelNY

      showing bad results for Democrats?

      Well that's definitely a sign of the apocalypse!

      22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Fri Apr 13, 2012 at 07:07:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Obama was ahead in Ras poll (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Anonyman

        Not too long ago. I wouldn't just write this off.

        •  Obama was also (6+ / 0-)

          behind in a Rasmussen poll not too long ago - many of them, in fact. It's a daily tracker, and has shown Romney leading over quite a few periods, even recently.

          PS. Oh, and Rasmussen sucks.

          •  Something is happening (0+ / 0-)

            Look between the job numbers, the slump on Wall Street last week, the Trayvon Martin Case, it's obvious that Obama has not had a good couple of weeks.  Knocking the pollster may ,make us feel good but if more polls confirm this, there is a problem.  Liberals have a "bubble" too, you know.

            •  This meme going to be getting a lot of work (9+ / 0-)

              over the next few months.

              Photobucket

              26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

              by okiedem on Fri Apr 13, 2012 at 07:58:07 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  So let's wait for the "if", right? (0+ / 0-)
            •  Your comments are typically gloomy, (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Theston, drachaCRO, madmojo, MichaelNY

              usually pointing to the latest negative outliers, and often to Rasmussen. But this comment seems gloomier than what you normally post. And you usually don't respond to replies, so I'm not sure you'll even read this.

              Having said that, I have no idea what you're talking about. Small blips in the stock market over a short period of time are generally meaningless in polling. The S&P was down less than 1% last week, and you think that's make-or-break? Seems like you're applying a similar perspective to the stock market as you do to polling (every little movement taken to its extreme).

              Also, Trayvon Martin? How on earth is that a negative for Obama? A poor kid stalked and shot, the attacker now in police custody. Your read on that doesn't make sense.

              Job numbers weren't great, but they weren't weak either. They've raised a little uncertainty, but haven't (yet) changed the underlying picture.

              Oh, and ABC/WaPo had Obama up 7-8 points a couple days ago, Obama's had a good run in Gallup, and state polling looks fan-freakin-tastic (even NC, for freak's sake).

              We WILL be tied or down in polling during stretches between now and November. That's the nature of modern elections. The point is to try to look at the aggregate, and remember that this is a long march, and sometimes you have to concede a day or a week to win the whole contest.

            •  What does the Trayvon Martin case have to do.. (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              itskevin, drachaCRO, sacman701, sulthernao

              ...with anything.  There's so much ambiguity in that case that no side really benefits.  Weve had a couple of great polling weeks.  Some funky polls by right wing outfits get you all worked up?  C'mon!

              Let this reassure you... Ipsos says that if Obama stays at 47% or higher, he has an 85% chance at re-election.  That's a pretty good bet.

              GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

              by LordMike on Fri Apr 13, 2012 at 08:14:19 AM PDT

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              •  Trayvon Martin Case (0+ / 0-)

                It has divided the country, and that is never good for a sitting President and allowed the right wing trashing machine to tar Obama with the Al Sharptons of the world.  If you read the polling most white people accept the Zimmerman story and think the "liberal" media is persecuting Zimmerman. Everything that has happened in the last couple of weeks has not helped Obama, if for nothing else taken the oxygen out of Romney's failures and focused the attention of people on other issues, and Hillary Rosen did not help, now the Dems will no longer talk about the "War on Women", I suspect that their internal polling suggests that it has run its course and may be backfiring.  The White House needs to get back on Romney with both feet and disqualify him or else we are in for a tight race.

                •  Worst case for Zimmerman = OJ (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  And in the aftermath of the LA riots, that was a more racially charged time.

                  The effect of the OJ case on Presidential politics = 0.

                  "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                  For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                  by tietack on Fri Apr 13, 2012 at 08:39:36 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  I haven't seen any polling that says that... (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  itskevin, Ahianne, MichaelNY

                  The last poll showed that 35% of whites thought the shooting was unjustified and 4% thought it was justified, with the rest not having an opinion.  Just because the majority of whites have no opinion on the shooting does not mean they are siding with Zimmerman.

                  The dems aren't backing off on the war on women, either.  That phrase was always a Republican one.  they will still heavily press womens issues.  It would be foolhardy not to do so.

                  Where are you getting all this panicky info from?  Seriously.  there are going to be ups and downs.  Personally, I think that campaign did an excellent job putting out the Rosen fire yesterday.  The fact that they were on top of that should inspire confidence, not worry.

                  GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

                  by LordMike on Fri Apr 13, 2012 at 08:51:06 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Coverage of that case (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  has gone on for quite some time (weeks now), and has coincided with a relatively strong polling period for Obama.

                  Your anecdotes and theories are nice and all, but it would be helpful if you backed them up with real data. In other words, just because you believe something to be so doesn't mean it is.

                  Oh, and overstatement usually don't help your argument. For example, how can it be possible that "everything that has happened over the past few weeks has not helped Obama"?

                  Strikes me as a tad bit breathless and incredible.

          •  Stop that! (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, MichaelNY

            can't you see we're trying to be concerned here? And then you come in with your logic and your reason...pfft!

            22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Fri Apr 13, 2012 at 09:10:50 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

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