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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Is Democratic Rep. Pete Stark losing it? (152 comments)

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  •  Democrats routinely (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dufffbeer

    Dominate all levels of congressional and federal elections in NY and MD, and with a level of effortlessness that isn't there in NJ. Democrats in the above two states have strong, emerging bases of suburban support, whereas outside Bergen and a few other diviersified inner suburbs, Democrats have made no inroads into Jersey's suburbs at all and can anyone recall the last statewide Democrat to win 60+ percent of the vote?

    Dick Codey would be the best bet, I'm just not sure he still has the fire after the numerous ways state party bosses have gone about trying to screw him and drive one of the state's most popular Democrats out of politics.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

    by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 06:57:05 AM PDT

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    •  No inroads into the suburbs (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, wwmiv

      Besides the suburbs in Essex, Mercer, Middlesex, Camden, Burlington, and Bergen counties, Dems do have scattered sources of strength in other suburbs (Scotch Plains/Fanwood in Union County, for instance, as well as Franklin Township in Somerset County). Morris County is also starting to get there. Demographic change is on our side in quite a few suburbs, especially in Central Jersey. While the Democratic ceiling may not be as high in NJ as in NY, the base is still pretty rock-solid, at least at the federal level.

      22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 07:11:25 AM PDT

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      •  Exactly (1+ / 0-)
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        General Goose

        We need not be thinking about ceilings, but about floors. Given that New Jersey is heavily minority about 40%, our floor is necessarily at or near 50%.

        None of our Senate candidates has gone above the 55.5% that Lautenberg scored in 2008, nor below the 50.1% that Corzine scored in 2000.  

        The simple fact of the matter is that the relative richness of the state (it ranks in the top five state in almost all measures of wealth and is usually the highest) creates a low ceiling for us, but we also have a high floor because of the high minority share.

        22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

        by wwmiv on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 07:25:16 AM PDT

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      •  That's just it (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        General Goose

        Democratic party bosses seem to be content with this 52-57% federal ceiling. Gore won the state by essentially as much as Obama did. In the various statewide races, Democrats made statistically unimportant gains at a time when they made serious strides in many traditionally Republican areas of New York and Maryland, and even in the Philly suburbs there was large scale movement to Democrats in Federal races that we did not see in NJ.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 07:36:22 AM PDT

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        •  Wealth (0+ / 0-)

          The largest difference between Jersey and the other states is the level of wealth. It's harder for us to make inroads here because they're largely wealthier suburbs than the ones we've made inroads into in Maryland, NY, and Philadelphia.

          22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

          by wwmiv on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 07:39:17 AM PDT

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          •  MontCo (0+ / 0-)

            Bucks and Chester aren't mostly upscale? Westchester, Orange, Monroe, aren't upscale? CT-04 isn't extremely upscale?

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

            by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 10:08:47 AM PDT

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            •  Monroe County NY? (0+ / 0-)

              Not particularly upscale to my knowledge...same with Orange. And Westchester and CT-04 are, sure, but those are no less Republican than NJ - CT-04 had a Republican Rep. until recently and Westchester veered sharply to the right in 2009/2010, first dumping Andy Spano and then nearly giving Suzi Oppenheimer the boot.

              22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

              by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 10:12:45 AM PDT

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              •  also Bucks is pretty working class (0+ / 0-)

                to my knowledge, but it hasn't moved left like the other suburbs (voting for Pat Toomey for instance - same with Chester which, from my outsider's perspective, seems to be more exurban than suburban).

                22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

                by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 10:14:06 AM PDT

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                •  Chester is sort of weird (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  sapelcovits, ArkDem14

                  The suburbs along the Mainline (the primary commuter rail line serving the area) are relatively dense and almost have the character of a first ring suburb. These areas tend to be relatively liberal and more diverse than the rest of the county which is indeed primarily exurban-to-rural, very white and more conservative (excluding similarly dense West Chester, the area around HBCU Lincoln University and the Hispanic mushroom-growing areas around Kennett Square).

                  26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

                  by okiedem on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 10:46:27 AM PDT

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              •  Obama got 60% of the vote in CT-04 (0+ / 0-)

                a liberal 10 term Republican incumbent lost, and the Democrat held it easily in 2010 against a top Republican recruit. I'd say it's more Democratic than many of the suburban areas of NJ with a similar character.

                I may have been wrong on the Philly suburbs. And I meant htat Rochester was traditionally a Republican area, and Onondaga used to be a swingish county. Democrats have made serious strides becoming stronger in upstate country that used to be Republican and in some of the suburbs. We haven't seen a similar growth in normally Republican areas of NJ. But maybe you can solely attribute that to wealth.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

                by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:04:39 PM PDT

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                •  Well CT-04 isn't a totally fair comparison (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  ArkDem14

                  since it does contain a big urban area (Bridgeport) and I think Stamford is pretty similar too...Westport is an exception, though (limousine liberals). And Democrats have made progress in traditionally Republican areas in NJ (remember, Republicans held the legislature a decade ago). Bergen County is a pretty good example of this. I think Burlington County is also turning bluer at the local level.

                  22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

                  by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:26:35 PM PDT

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                  •  The thing is (0+ / 0-)

                    on a federal level (Democrats certainly made big gains locally despite Christie's top of the ticket win suggesting Christie is just voters FU to the political establishment), Bergen started this trend in the 1980s, sped up in the 1990s, and has remained mostly stagnant in in the 2000s. But it is the reason why New Jersey is almost impossible for Republicans in Federal races now.

                    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

                    by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:31:52 PM PDT

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                    •  What big gains locally did Dems make in 2009? (0+ / 0-)

                      I wasn't really following local races then, but I do remember losing an Assembly seat in a fairly Dem-leaning district (LD-04). And Dems actually did well in Bergen in 2011, both at the county level and with Bob Gordon, Connie Wagner, and Tim Eustace all winning in radically weakened district. Corzine also won it in 2009, although I'm not sure what would have happened if Loretta Weinberg hadn't been on the ticket.

                      22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

                      by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:37:06 PM PDT

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                      •  Sorry, I meant 2011 (0+ / 0-)

                        Despite Christie throwing his full weight (cue joke) behind the Republican candidates. Christie worked hard, and it was a lower turnout local election and Republicans still lost, right in the aftermath of the 2010 wave, so the optics were understandably bad.

                        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

                        by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 02:32:03 PM PDT

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        •  Isn't New Jersey Heavily Jewish? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, jncca

          I suspect Lieberman's presence on the Gore ticket was responsible for Gore doing better than Obama in New Jersey, much like Gore's 67% victory in the old NY-09 compared to Obama's 55% win.

          •  also (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca

            Gore did very well in Monmouth and Ocean counties (I believe he actually won Monmouth), both of which have since trended hard right. Obama, meanwhile, won Somerset County (which Gore lost), reflecting the growth of Indian-American and other favorable voters in the last decade. New Jersey has both R-trending and D-trending areas.

            22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 09:41:48 AM PDT

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        •  well you should keep your eye on (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14

          the LD-16 special election this fall. It has traditionally Republican areas in Hunterdon and Somerset counties, but it also added Princeton and South Brunswick, both of which will turn out to vote for Obama. And our likely candidate, Marie Corfield, got pretty close last year. And don't forget how we picked up a State Senate seat in 2010 that had previously been the stomping grounds of moderate Rep. Bill Baroni and contained several wealthy suburbs.

          22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 09:45:08 AM PDT

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