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View Diary: Handicapping Minnesota For 2012 County by County--Obama Counties (37 comments)

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  •  Oops...Sherburne County Was In MN-08 (0+ / 0-)
    •  Interesting (1+ / 0-)
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      TofG

      Thanks for the answers! I'm relieved that at least one of the outstate districts is heading out way, as I'd hate to be confined to a Twin Cities/Duluth vs. the rest of the state situation.

      Long term how do you feel about our chances in MN-2? I know Kline is entrenched :-( , but in a neutral environment do you see the district shifting our way over the course of the decade with blueing of inner burbs or is the exurban sprawl going to balance that out evenly?

      Also which way is Cannon Falls heading? I knew some people who commuted to jobs in Northfield that moved there while I was in college, but I don't know if this might end up causing a slight leftward shift or if I'm dealing with just a few isolated incidents. I'd be curious if that might bring Goodhue county over the line to our side this fall.

      OH-1 (born and raised ), MN-2 (college), CA-53 (grad school), IA-2 (postdoc)

      by aamail6 on Sun Apr 29, 2012 at 06:51:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  MN-02..... (0+ / 0-)

        Losing Carver County to MN-03 and MN-06 was a huge anchor lifted off of MN-02 Democrats.  Ultimately, however, it's still unfriendly territory.  Dakota County is Democrats' best long-term option there as it seems as though much of it is slowly moving Democrats' direction.  But for the foreseeable future, it would be an unusual experience for a Democrat to win even under the new MN-02 lines.  If Kline retires and some firebrand like Dave Thompson runs up against a moderate Democrat, the good guys would have a chance.  Beyond that, I'm not seeing too much Democratic potential here.

        Hard to say with Cannon Falls.  I don't think the population is growing substantially, which means it's likely to remain pretty evenly divided politically as it has been for years.

      •  Over the decade, MN-2 (0+ / 0-)

        is too Republican.  Unless something changes, it'll stay Kline.  And MN is slated to lose a seat in 2020 so after that, who knows what will happen.

        Cannon Falls voted for Obama in 2008 and he did visit the city last year on a speaking tour.  He certainly chose it for a reason, along with other smaller towns that helped rack up votes in the rural Upper Midwest.  It's why he won WI by a huge 14% in 2008, why MN isn't a battle ground state this time and where WI barely registers as one, for no reason.

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