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View Diary: WI-Gov: Scott Walker takes leads, but sits right at the 50% mark (275 comments)

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  •  It would be lunacy not to (6+ / 0-)

    It's not crazy at all.  Barrett will win the primary.  It's pure delusion to not know that.

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 11:23:53 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  The numbers don't bear that out. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rosarugosa, DCCyclone, rcnewton

      They show that he has an advantage for the time being, but that the numbers are moving in Falk's direction, and there are more than enough undecideds to close the gap.

      It would be delusional for Kathleen Falk to look at these numbers as a reason to drop out.

      •  I like Falk. (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, Cream City, Inkpen, ptanow

        I voted for her against Doyle.  I voted for her against Lautenschlager.

        But even though the plural of anecdotes isn't data, I'm pretty convinced that Barrett will be the nominee.

        Many of the rank and file union folks I work with were annoyed with the pre-emptive AFSCME and WEAC endorsements.  I don't know why, but Falk just doesn't seem to come off well with the voters I talk to.

        I just hope the Democratic primary campaign stays as positive as possible.  I'm not working for anyone at this point, but plan to be "all-in" after May 8th.

      •  You better read the numbers closer (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Cream City, COBALT1928, Inkpen, itskevin

        Barrett is -4 favorables.  Falk is -16.

        Nothing is moving in her favor (if only because the poll isn't comparable to the previous one).

        Attacking Barrett doesn't help Falk beat Walker.  She won't win.  It only helps Walker.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:19:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  How does a union attack on Barrett help Walker? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          rcnewton

          Do you really think anyone whose primary vote would be moved by comparing Falk's record on collective bargaining to Barrett's wouldn't turn out to vote against Walker?

          •  Obviously (6+ / 0-)

            Since this happens every election.

            I don't even understand how you can ask that question.  Attacks on Barrett hurt Barrett.  Whatever hurts Barrett helps Walker.  

            Turnout here is the entire deal.  Making middlingly motivated people dislike Barrett ensures Walker wins.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 12:32:50 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's my point (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              rosarugosa

              Unions are not middlingly motivated. The people who care about the finer points of collective bargaining are union members. They're the ones that are actually hearing the attacks on Barrett; most of the rest of the public is just hearing that the unions are attacking Barrett. And union members know that on their issues Falk>Barrett>>Walker.

              •  By focusing on the union issues (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                peptabysmal, JBraden, Bombay

                with so few Wisconsinites in unions, that is not helping reach out to the rest of the voters.  There is so much more that Walker has done to Wisconsin that needs to be discussed and that could win more voters to the Dems -- but the unions are playing single-interest politics to the detriment of whichever Dem wins.  And there is not enough time in this rushed recall election schedule to reorder the agenda that the unions keep pushing.

                And, of course, every bit of the attacks that Falk is making on Barrett will be ammo for Walker.  It's another Dem disaster, with only a few weeks; we need some to start stepping aside to let the post-primary campaign begin now.  (Barrett is trying to do that, but the unions keep pushing Falk to keep pushing their agenda again. . . .)

                "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

                by Cream City on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 06:30:38 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Barrett was warned (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  askew

                  That if he entered the race, his weakness on labor issues would be a factor in the primary. If he doesn't like what's happening, he's welcome to drop out.

                  •  Falk was warned of her weaknesses (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    rosarugosa, peptabysmal

                    as well, and she is fortunate that Barrett and others are conducting clean campaigns and not raising Falk's issues . . . but she, of course, also is welcome to drop out.  Because, if she wins the primary, Walker will raise those issues, and we will lose the recall.

                    So much for the nyah nyahs.  

                    You must want to lose this recall.   Are you a public employee in Wisconsin?  Are you even in Wisconsin?  This thread has a lot of outsiders who apparently have not done their homework on what is at stake here, on all that has happened here. . . .

                    "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

                    by Cream City on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 08:18:20 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  As a matter of fact I am a public employee. (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      rosarugosa, peptabysmal

                      In Madison. I've been at ground zero of this fight from before the beginning. So maybe dial it back a bit on the personal attacks.

                      •  So am I, so how about (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        rosarugosa, peptabysmal

                        dialing back attacks on the candidate most likely to beat Walker.  

                        "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

                        by Cream City on Tue Apr 17, 2012 at 03:48:24 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  How about this? (0+ / 0-)

                          I will accurately characterize the strengths and weakness of the candidate with the virtually insignificant electability advantage.

                          The poll we're talking about shows that there's only a 2.3% chance that Barrett is more electable than Falk, and a 1.1% chance that Falk is more electable than him.

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