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View Diary: WI-Gov: Scott Walker takes leads, but sits right at the 50% mark (275 comments)

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  •  What's a "likely voter screen" for a hyperpartisan (0+ / 0-)

    recall, in summer, that has never had a recall?

    By definition, this is the first time they've done it.

    And in doing so they came up with a sample lower in partisans of both types, and higher in non-partisans.  In other words, PPP is saying the most "energized" voters for the Wisconsin recall are independants.  Not likely.

    To repeat the obvious, likely voters in June is not the exact same universe as likely voters in November.

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 01:45:35 PM PDT

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    •  Last Summer (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      They were spot on with the Summer Elections using this screen.

      •  Which again is the point (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Cream City

        A statewide race featuring the Gov is not the same as several dispersed state senate races that weren't even all the same day.

        There is zero chance the same screen is appropriate this summer, except by coincidence.  The current circumstances are different than last year's circumstances.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 04:04:59 PM PDT

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        •  6 races (0+ / 0-)

          6 races in geographically disparate senate districts were on the same day and PPP was spot on with every single race.

        •  If anything last year was harder. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          rosarugosa
        •  tommy you're not being rational here (0+ / 0-)

          There is nothing unusual about this special election that argues for some kind of "different" or "unique" likely voter screen, or no likely voter screen at all.  

          Your arguments are not remotely plausible.

          This poll is fine.  It might be wrong, the difference from last time might be statistical noise, and yes the screen could be off and skewed the turnout model.  But there's no reason to think there's some "better" way to do it that is clearly going to produce "more accurate" results.

          All the Wisconsin polls, not just PPP's, have been strangely volatile this year, I think reflecting an unsure electorate.  We've seen Walker on the ropes in a couple rounds of polls, and Walker modestly leading in others.

          But there's no reason to dismiss PPP's methodology here.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 07:18:13 PM PDT

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          •  So then make a case (0+ / 0-)

            Why is the turnout 31D/32R?

            No armwaving now, just state why they chose a likely voter model with a 31D/32R turnout model.

            Further state why likely voters in the June recall are lower in both Dems and Reps than either 2008 or 2010.

            Cut to the chase, you can't.  There is no logical argument that can be made that says both Dems and Reps are much less likely to vote in June, and indies are way, way more likely to vote.

            Screening for likely voters is good, but the only likely voter screen that makes sense for a race like this is self-selection.  Eliminate voters who say they won't vote.  Don't conjure up an absurd distribution that has no chance of occuring.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 07:29:08 PM PDT

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            •  It's just noise, and we have history here... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              rosarugosa

              ...for just these types of "problems" in PPP polling, almost always proving irrelevant to the accuracy of the toplines.

              I played this game myself the last cycle, and got burned.  I kept questioning turnout models and such, based on party or race or ideology, and it turned out most of the time that PPP still came out consistent with the totality of polling far from an election, and proved accurate up close.  That doesn't mean there weren't any misses, NV-Sen was a big one, but they were actually a bit better than other polls even there, regardless of the turnout models.  I distinctly CO-Sen as one where the Hispanic vote share and party ID jumped around a lot across polls, but the topline always showed a dead heat, almost always 3 points or less either way.

              Another thing is that "adjusting" the turnout model based on party ID or other demographic categories doesn't change the topline much, often hardly at all.  That's something a lot of people don't realize, but it's always true when you actually do the math.

              Again, yes this poll could be wrong, as even the best public polls are wrong at least 5% of the time.  But trying to pick apart its internals to prove the point is folly, and I learned that myself through making the same mistakes I see you making here.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 08:19:17 PM PDT

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    •  I disagree. (0+ / 0-)

      I would say turnout is likely to be higher than 2008.

      I agree with Cript who spoke below.

      20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

      by aggou on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 02:23:25 PM PDT

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      •  You think turnout in June will be more than 2008? (0+ / 0-)

        No chance, but whatever.

        The point again though is this is an unprecedented event.  There is no logical way to screen this, aside from simple statements from the respondents saying they won't vote.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 04:07:39 PM PDT

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        •  Do not shrug me off (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          rosarugosa

          like I have no idea what I'm talking about.

          Are you going to sit there and tell me that both the democrats and republicans are not fired up about this election? and that they won't vote early, or by absentee ballot if need be to either vote to get rid of, or keep Walker?

          PPP's latest poll shows he's got around 97% approval by republicans, and you're telling me they won't turn out?

          He's probably got the same amount of democrats who absolutely cannot wait for him to be gone. You don't think they'll turn out?

          Then you have the Indies who are in the middle, split between the two, who've had to live through this for a year. You don't think they'll turn out to have their voices heard to?

          It should surprise no one in the slightest if this turnout is as big, if not bigger than '08.

          20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

          by aggou on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 04:28:53 PM PDT

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          •  According to this poll Dems and Reps are (0+ / 0-)

            not fired up.  Both their percentages are way down from the 2008 turnout levels.

            I'm not telling you they won't turn out.  The PPP poll/screen you are defending says they won't turn out.

            Tell you what, I'll send $100 to Romney if June turnout is higher than 2008 general turnout, if you send $1 to Obama if it is lower.

            Deal?

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Mon Apr 16, 2012 at 07:02:20 PM PDT

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            •  Maybe that is the problem with the poll, comparing (0+ / 0-)

              a senate election to a gubernatorial election.

              You know, we just had the GOP primary here and we heard again and again how the Republicans were very concerned about the recall election and not the primary.

              Now, 2 weeks later, we're supposed to have election fatigue or something.

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