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View Diary: Golden State Smackdowns: A Guide to the 2012 Congressional Races in California (144 comments)

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  •  Mitchum might get into the top two in CA-24 (6+ / 0-)

    Interior Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo are a lot like Kern in being reliably conservative Republican and turnout may consist of more conservative voters since more moderate Republicans may skip because the presidential primary is done and moderate independents may skip too with nothing big at the top of the ticket.

    25, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Mon Apr 23, 2012 at 06:03:31 AM PDT

    •  I strongly agree (7+ / 0-)

      I lived in the Santa Barbara area for a few years and there were not many moderate Republicans there (the Santa Ynez Valley in interior Santa Barbara in 2004 was filled with so many Bush/Cheney signs and McCain/Palin signs in 2008, there were gigantic ones on the raches,) but there even seems to be a group of conservatives in Goleta and western Santa Barbara City (although they are outweighed in the general by UCSB students and baby boomer liberals.) I had some neighbors who were extremely religious.

      Maldonado may do well in the San Luis Obispo area due to his familiarity with the voters there but interior Santa Barbara is going for the conservative guy, a moderate cannot win there.

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/

      by Alibguy on Mon Apr 23, 2012 at 06:34:23 AM PDT

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    •  My reason for doubting him is mostly $ (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I think his lack of fundraising doesn't point to a guy who has extensive support, at least not yet.  My feeling is that if there were a huge conservative appetite to dump Maldonado, it would manifest itself in Mitchum's fundraising.  He only raised $18,660 in the last quarter, which is far smaller than he should if conservatives were going to unify behind him.  This is one to keep an eye on for June, but I feel pretty good about Maldonado making it to the general at least.  

      22, male, new CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

      by Jeff Singer on Mon Apr 23, 2012 at 09:17:35 AM PDT

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