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View Diary: Golden State Smackdowns: A Guide to the 2012 Congressional Races in California (144 comments)

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  •  good job (9+ / 0-)

    Thanks for putting all the time into this. I agree with your ratings for the most part, but would disagree on these:

    21: I think you're way off here. This is still the Dems' seat to win. Xiong may not have much of a base there and may need to be bailed out by the national party, but the district is still built for a Dem who supports the ag industry (as opposed to a hardcore enviro like Boxer, who did very poorly everywhere in the central valley). Brown won there even with Hispanic turnout in the toilet in 2010. If Dems can sufficiently mobilize Hispanic voters, they should win. Of course that's a big if and running a strong ground campaign is easier said that done, but I would start this one at tossup and definitely give it 5 stars.

    The next 4 you have at 4 stars, meaning that the underdog has a good chance to win. In all 4 of these, I think there is a clear favorite who would have to stumble badly to lose. I'd put them all at 3 stars.

    3: Vann is from the wrong part of the district to give Garamendi trouble in a presidential year. Garamendi should roll in Solano and Yolo and has enough chops on ag issues to hold margins down in the rest of the district.

    9: Gill has money, but so did Harmer and that was in a redder district in a red wave year. The new district is more downscale than the old one and I don't see Gill, a 24 year old rich kid who has just ridden his family connections, being able to connect with working class voters at all.

    31: Miller has baggage and is much too conservative for a district that even Boxer won.

    36: MBM is a social moderate and a good fit for the district. I think it will be competitive by the end of the decade, but not yet.

    SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Mon Apr 23, 2012 at 09:04:49 AM PDT

    •  MBM is a fauxderate (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Darth Jeff, atdnext, ArkDem14

      She originally opposed DADT repeal, an issue which is pretty much a no-brainer for anyone with even a modicum of social moderation. Between the district's changing demographics, MBM's weaknesses (doesn't she spend a lot of time out of the district because of her husband?), and the DCCC's acknowledgement of Ruiz as a serious candidate, I'm hoping that an upset is at least possible.

      22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 23, 2012 at 09:18:11 AM PDT

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    •  Thanks for your imput! (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, hankmeister, bumiputera

      I'm keeping an eye on CA-21: if Xiong ups his fundraising game and national Dems get involved this one will go much higher.  

      The others I'm waiting and seeing on.  I feel that the national parties are too bullish about all of them for me not to rate them as very competitive, but we'll see how things shake out.  CA-36 I almost gave only three stars, but the DCCC's interest made me reevaluate.

      22, male, new CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

      by Jeff Singer on Mon Apr 23, 2012 at 09:25:16 AM PDT

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    •  Ground feel (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff

      I have seen Valadao signs up already. I haven't seen one Xiong sign.

      ex-SSP. What would Machiavelli do?

      by hankmeister on Mon Apr 23, 2012 at 09:47:48 AM PDT

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    •  boxer didn't do poorly everywhere in the valley (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff, MichaelNY

      she won solano (55-39), yolo (59-36) and sac (50-43) by healthy margins, and kept it close in san joaquin county (48-44).  i'll grant that she did poorly outside of the delta/80/capitol/stockton central region of the central valley, but still that's a significant chunk of the population of the central valley right there, and we do have ag.

      had latino turnout been as high in 2010 as it was in 2008, boxer would have kept it closer in fresno, and i agree that that could help put xiong over the top, if he plays it right.

      •  Depends on definition of "poorly". (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wu ming, Darth Jeff, MichaelNY

        I think sacman meant that Barbara Boxer mostly matched Kerry 2004 numbers in the Central Valley, which sucked compared to the margins Jerry Brown managed to pull.

        OTOH, Barbara Boxer mostly outperformed Jerry Brown in the Bay Area and Coastal SoCal, where her enviro record is a big net plus.

        The Central Valley races do probably hinge on Latin@ turnout, so I just hope that the CDP & DCCC are investing in field there.

        •  there are so many good races in the valley now (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Darth Jeff, MichaelNY

          it would be a crime if the party didn't pony up big time. california donates so much time and energy to the democrats nationally, it's time for them to help us out. after all, house seats won here help as much as seats won in the midwest, when it comes to taking back the majority.

          underperforming brown isn't sucking IMO. brown is a hell of a politician, and played better to moderate white men than the vast majority of democratic candidates, and with far less money to boot. i will concede that boxer tends to win by running the score up on the coast, but she wasn't absent from the valley, and it wasn't a friendly election in the CV this cycle. had she been running in 2008 with a general election electorate, i think she would have done far better.

        •  Boxer (5+ / 0-)

          I should have said the San Joaquin valley. The I-80 corridor is much different, as it's loaded with people who commute to the bay area or Sacramento. Culturally it sort of has one foot in the bay and one foot in the valley (Davis often acts like it's part of Marin county).

          SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Mon Apr 23, 2012 at 03:49:27 PM PDT

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