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View Diary: Golden State Smackdowns: A Guide to the 2012 Congressional Races in California (144 comments)

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  •  Whew (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, atdnext, MichaelNY

    quite a task, this must have been.  California didn't just shuffle the lines, they also scrambled the numbers too.  You basically have to start from scratch in analyzing the new map.  There's probably going to be a dozen freshmen from California the next year, quite the turnover considering how static the delegation was from 2002 onward.

    With everything scrambled it's tricky to determine what exactly is a pickup and what is a hold, especially with the open seats.  I'm counting 14 likely GOP seats, with a couple tossups they might hold as well.  Since they have 19 seats now, looks like a 3-5 seat gain for us, unless the California GOP beats expectations (unlikely I think, given their weak performance in 2010).

    •  easy way to keep track (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff, lordpet8, Skaje, atdnext

      Richardson's seat moved to Inland Empire
      Miller's seat moved to Inland Empire
      Cardoza's seat became Open Central Valley Seat

      After those three, everything else is actually pretty simple to keep track of, it's either mostly the same territory or kept the same incumbent.

      19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

      by jncca on Mon Apr 23, 2012 at 12:28:06 PM PDT

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    •  Thanks! It was a fun challenge (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext

      MPI maps made it a bit easier by giving some really good detailed maps to look at.  There will be a minimum of 10 freshmen with a decent possibility of 8 incumbents losing to challengers.  That's be quite the change-over!  California's lucky it has enough senior members in both parties to keep the state's clout intact as new members work their way up.

      22, male, new CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

      by Jeff Singer on Mon Apr 23, 2012 at 12:28:51 PM PDT

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      •  But it looks like the ones with the most... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Darth Jeff

        Seniority are in deep doo-doo. Pete Stark may lose in CA-15, Howard Berman may lose in CA-30, and Gary Miller may lose in CA-31. Lynn Woolsey, Jerry Lewis, and Elton Gallegly are already gone. There will be a whole lot of change going on there, and a whole lot of seniority lost.

        That's what's really p*ssing off the power players here. Since Mark Amodei hasn't served a full term in NV-02, there's a strong chance that our ENTIRE House delegation will be freshmen next year... And that even if that doesn't happen, it's not like Joe Heck has really delivered much of anything in his first term in NV-03.

        •  Reminds me of Kansas in 2010. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, Darth Jeff

          When all was said and done, 3/4 Congressmen were freshman, the other was a sophomore. As well as a freshman Senator. Could be almost the exact same situation in Nevada.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

          by HoosierD42 on Tue Apr 24, 2012 at 02:22:57 AM PDT

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      •  MPI was pretty helpful (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        atdnext, Darth Jeff

        They gave all of the partisan information for the district as well as the demographics. They even made the maps pretty clear.

        California though has so many representatives who have been there forever, it looks like we are getting new blood though!

        For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6)

        by Alibguy on Mon Apr 23, 2012 at 02:24:27 PM PDT

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