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View Diary: Please Share the Image That Made Walker Supporters’ Heads Explode (173 comments)

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  •  Hate to belabor the point (1+ / 0-)
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    since I think we're basically on the same side.  But the point of the two surveys is fundamentally the same, to measure the number of individuals working, whether it's in Wisconsin, Illinois or Minnesota.  (The number of driver licenses and vehicle licenses isn't the same because you could own multiple vehicles or I could have none.  But one job gets you counted in the CPS survey although someone holding two could be counted twice in the CES survey.  But interpreting the difference that way would mean fewer people are working multiple jobs which I don't think is the correct interpretation.)

    My point is that it's the changes and the different directions of changes that are critical to explain.  Yes, jobs could be moving to the Twin Cities or to Chicago, but it's not sufficient to argue that many Wisconsinites are working there; you've got to argue that those numbers have increased substantially.  Over the past year, given that the employment in the Twin Cities has risen by about 15k while its labor force has increased by about 12k and employment in Chicago has risen by about 43k while its labor force has grown by about 58k, I think that's a tough case to make.

    Let me apologize, however, for misinterpreting the initial table, thinking that referred only to the most recent few months.  My comments reflected a systemic concern that all too often business reporters look at a blip in one or the other of these surveys and conclude "the sky is falling" or that one of the surveys is incorrect or better than the other.  Over the course of a year, differences are more likely to reflect something real rather than a statistical anomaly.

    Over a year, the drop in jobs is something that should be hung around Walker's neck, and that table does a pretty good job of making that point.   But perhaps the key to the difference in the numbers, not surprisingly, is the drop in the Wisconsin labor force of about 22k.  (Wisconsin and Rhode Island were the only two states with a drop in the labor force over that period.)  You might also want to ask Walker why, if his proposals are so great, is Wisconsin's labor force shrinking when that of virtually every other state is increasing?

    •  Not quite the same (1+ / 0-)
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      But the point of the two surveys is fundamentally the same, to measure the number of individuals working, whether it's in Wisconsin, Illinois or Minnesota.
      CPS => # of Wisconsin-dwellers with jobs, no matter where those jobs are.
      CES => # of positions subject to Federal payroll tax law offered within Wisconsin by Wisconsin-based companies and the self-employed.

      So CES isn't intended to measure the number of individuals working, nor the number working out of state.

      Jan 2011 to Jan 2012 I make it about a 15,000 drop in the WI labor force; March-March about -6,000.

      Fake candidates nominated by the GOP for the recalls: 6 out of 7. Fake signatures on the recall petitions: 4 out of 1,860,283.

      by GeoffT on Tue Apr 24, 2012 at 03:39:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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