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View Diary: Journalmalism strikes again in Social Security reporting (80 comments)

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  •  The SS report is very skewed.... (1+ / 0-)
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    NonnyO

    Their projection for running out of money in 2033 depends on a 6.5% unemployment rate continuing to 2033, on wage growth continuing to be stagnant until 2033 growing inflation adjusted at about 0.5%, depends on almost no immigration and continued stagnant fertility rates.

    ALL of these assumptions are patently absurd.

    1. unemployment will go down heavily as more people retire, this will be unavoidable moving passed 2020 as retirement rates swing upwards. Also their are many delaying retirement atm which is also skewing this statistic in a negative way that simply won't hold for the next 20 years.

    2. As more people retire wage pressure will go up, This is a natural and obvious outcome. For the report to pretend that the wave of retirements won't effect wage pressure in the market smacks of delusional or conservatively manipulative designs.

    3. immigration being down is a temporary effect, current anti-immigration fervour is unsustainable for the farming industry and meat/ranching industries.

    4. immigration again will have upwards pressure from increased retirement rates, low hanging fruit of (citizen)American workers held up from job advancement due to delayed retirements will open up more low end opportunities as they are allowed to continue their job advancement after the retirement rate picks up again.

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