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View Diary: Obama's Demographic Advantage (30 comments)

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  •  turnout rates can decrease, but... (5+ / 0-)

    demographic trends mitigate if not overwhelm

    ex: suppose 25% of voting age eligible adults were non-white in 08...

    and that increases to 27% by 2012...

    then the drop off in non-white turnout must exceed the increase in the eligible population to reduce the non-white share of the electorate

    •  I could design an ad campaign (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Dvalkure, wuod kwatch, ybruti

      to emphasize that the GOP used their 2010 wins to undercut DEM initiatives for the past two years.

      But the true reason to support BHO is to prevent the GOP from gaining one and possibly two more Justices on the SCOTUS.  Imagine what would happen with 6 winger on the SC.

      "Never let up. Crush bigotry and greed."

      by LouisMartin on Wed Apr 25, 2012 at 01:09:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Only if turnout overall decreases (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      The point is:  conservative turnout may be even higher than 2010.  Their motivation is to turn President Obama out of the white house, and Romney's disapproval rates may not affect their votes as much as they would in some years.

      Dem base demographics are demoralized and turnout will likely be somewhat (if not significantly) less than in 2008.

      Added to that is the probability of independents moving to vote GOP and swing states become extremely close.  Independents went for Obama 52% in 2008.  They are now breaking toward Romney 4-6 points in some polls.

      And Independent voter registration is up in swing states.

      The new purple poll (swing states) has Romney tied in Colorado and winning Florida.

      President Obama’s job approval ticked up overall, and down among independents—and is problematic for an incumbent President.

      President Obama’s job performance has moved up a hair in
      Purple states over the last month with 47% approving of his job performance, while 48% disapprove. However, he is moving the wrong direction with independents, as 52% disapprove of the job he’s doing, up 3 points from last month.

      Obama still looks good, though!  But those margins are very close.

      I will say it again.. demographics mean little if your party's preferred demographics don't show up.

      •  Not really (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Supavash, jbeach

        Only 40% of people vote in a midterm, versus 60% in a presidential year. That big jump in the conservative share in 2010 was because they were motivated to turn out while other groups dropped out. But when the total numbers of voters increase like they do in a Prez year, it's hard to win a presidential election just by turning out your base.

        Demographic increase help. The Latino vote went from 7% in 2000, to 8% in 2004, to 9% in 2008, predictions that they'll reach 10% this year are perfectly reasonable when you look at the trend.

        Also people forget about Asian Americans. They went from 3.5% in 2000, to 4% in 2004, to 4.5% in 2008, prediction is they'll be 5% in 2012. They went over 60% for Obama. Immigration and racial profiling (with South Asians) are still huge issues that people don't realize push this group to the left

        Remove the Asian and Latino vote from Virginia and North Carolina and INDIANA and Obama loses  those states in 2008!

        African Americans were 11% in 2004, 13% in 2008, even if they don;t turn out at 13% do you think Obama can outperform Kerry with black voters? I have them at a 12% share.

        There is also a category called "others" that Obama won at a 66% rate that was 1.5% of the electorate in 2008. I have no idea if they are growing???

        Prediction that the white share of the electorate will drop 1-2% are perfectly reasonable.

        -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

        by dopper0189 on Wed Apr 25, 2012 at 07:22:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I disagree (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jbeach, isabelle hayes

        I've said it before and I'll say it again, African Americans back Obama a 100%. It does not matter how bad the economy, they will come out and in big numbers. They want Obama to win re-election. In regards to Hispanics, they are really not that different than blacks, at least in the urban inner city areas. Plus they are very mad at the Republicans. They will come out to the polls just to get them out of office. Polls have consistently showed Obama dominating. So yeah, turnout is key but with an election that will get worldwide media attention, I'm pretty sure people are gonna turnout.

      •  By the way (0+ / 0-)

        That's just one poll. Have you seen the other polls? PPP just came out with a poll and Obama was up by like 13. I've never seen Obama tied in Colorado. Also, Purple strategies uses likely voters. Finally, they have Obama up in Ohio by 6. The GOP needs to win Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia to win. All 4. If they don't they lose. I'd say Obama is looking pretty good. So you keep on trying to poo poo on everybody but we know the facts and we know the polls.

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