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View Diary: Handicapping Minnesota for 2012 County by County--Romney Counties (18 comments)

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  •  Like the other diary (0+ / 0-)

    Great work.

    But you're too hopeful on Chisago County. Like it's neighboring Isanti County, it is safe Romney. This is Cravaack land. Bachmann-style Republicans run abound.

    •  I Was Right On The Border With Declaring That One. (0+ / 0-)

      ...."safe Romney".  I wanted to hedge my bet just a little in the event of a landslide on the order of Obama in Wisconsin in 2008.  You're right though.  I'd give Obama 1% odds of winning Chisago.  Still not sure how Jeremy Kalin won there twice in 2006 and 2008.  He definitely got out at the right time to avoid a humiliating defeat.

      •  Kalin (0+ / 0-)

        I really like him. He was a freshman when I started hanging around the capital with my staffer credentials.

        Typical Kos people would whinge at the mere thought of him running statewide, but he has a future if he wants it. I don't say that lightly. Because as an engineer, the thought of an architect having political clout makes my stomach churn. LOL.

    •  My ex lived in Wyoming, MN. Chisago County, (0+ / 0-)

      which is the first city off the freeway from the Twin Cities and every time we went up there to go boating it just like getting off at the exit into St. Michael-Albertville where I went to high-school.  And yesterday I made a very educated guess and I am pretty sure my old stomping grounds gave Bachmann the highest net vote share out of any city in MN-6, except for maybe/probably one other city.

      Maybe I'll do the math on my day off tomorrow but yeah, Chisago and Isanti are safe GOP and will be for a very long time.  We are still able to work some ancestral DFL mojo at the local level here with a lot of luck, but federal, nah, never going to happen.  And those two counties will only get more Republican with more exurban growth, especially Chisago considering I-35 is a real easy commute down to the cities.

      •  Oh, I should probably say which city (0+ / 0-)

        may have given her a more favorable net share of votes, and that'd be Andover.  It's still more populated than the twin cities of St. Michael and Albertville combined, although I can't remember if STMA is a touch more conservative due to Andover having characteristics that make it more closely defined as a suburb rather than an exurb.  And then there is balancing that out with Andover having 7k more people.  By the 2020 census, we'll see.  Andover only grew by 15.1%, so 30k total people now.  Albertville grew by 95% and is 7k and St. Michael grew by 80% and is 16k people.  Housing market in these two cities obviously took a giant dump, so maybe I'll be wrong.  (I hate variables.)

        •  Pretty Sure St. Michael Would Have Been Worse.... (0+ / 0-)

          ....than Andover.  Actually, my guess is that Bachmann's best town would have been the affluent Washington County suburb of Dellwood, which routinely goes 70+% for the Republican.

      •  i know Wyoming well (0+ / 0-)

        Have a couple friends that went to forest lake. Also, a TA of mine in college is a Hallberg, and the son of the owner of Hallberg Marine on the freeway there.

        But year, Andover and set. Michael are blood red. No county in the entire state gave McCain so much as 60%, but both of those cities did.

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