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View Diary: Doubling the House: Pennsylvania (20 comments)

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  •  nice work (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42

    Good job.
    This was one where I was definitely interested in seeing what a difference gerrymandering would make.  Since Republicans hold the trifecta in PA, here's my quick and dirty map of what they would draw with a doubled house (nowhere near the detail you go into):


    SEPA

    PA-01: Delaware County and west Philly.  Black majority.  84-16.  Safe D.
    PA-02: Philly.  Probably Brady's district.  Majority white.  76-23.  Safe D.
    PA-03: Philly.  Black majority.  87-12.  Safe D.
    PA-04: Philly/Montco.  Black majority.  88-12.  Safe D.
    PA-18: Delware County.  52-47.  Tossup, maybe tilt R.
    PA-13: Philly/Montco.  45% white.  83-17.  Safe D.
    PA-16: Lower Bucks/Philly.  60-39.  Likely D.
    PA-15: Upper Bucks.  50/50.  Likely R.
    PA-12: Montco.  58/41.  Likely D.
    PA-25: Montco.  52/48.  Lean R.
    PA-14: Delaware County.  53-47.  Tossup.
    PA-10: York.  44-55.  Safe R.
    PA-11: Delaware/Lancaster/Lebanon.  46-53.  Safe R.
    PA-09: Lancaster.  46-53.  Safe R.
    PA-29: Easton/Bethlehem/Allentown/Reading.  70/28.  Safe D.
    PA-17: Northampton/Lehigh/Berks.  50-49.  Lean R.
    PA-22: Northampton/Lehigh/Berks.  50-49.  Lean R.
    PA-34: Based in Schuylkill/Carbon.  47-52.  Lean D with Holden.  Likely R otherwise.


    NEPA

    PA-20: Rural NEPA.  44-55.  Safe R.
    PA-21: Based in Luzerne and Columbia.  49-50.  Likely R.
    PA-33: Scranton/W-B/East Stroudsburg.  65-35.  Safe D.


    Western/Central PA

    PA-05: Erie.  60-40.  Safe D.
    PA-06: Butler/Lawrence/Allegheny.  39-60.  Safe R.
    PA-07: Beaver/Allegheny.  45-55.  Safe R.
    PA-08: Rural northern PA.  42-57.  Safe R.
    PA-30: Rural western PA.  41-59.  Safe R.
    PA-31: Westmoreland/Allegheny.  42-57.  Safe R.
    PA-32: Greene/Washington/Allegheny.  46/53.  Lean R.
    PA-28: Pittsburgh into Beaver.  62-37.  Safe D.
    PA-27: Pittsburgh.  75-25.  Safe D.
    PA-26: Johnstown/Altoona.  44-55.  Safe R.
    PA-24: Rural southern PA.  43-56.  Safe R.
    PA-23: Williamsport based.  41-58.  Safe R.
    PA-35: Rural Dauphin and surrounding areas.  45-54.  Safe R.
    PA-36: Harrisburg/York/Cumberland.  45-54.  Safe R.
    PA-19: Rural Southern PA.  42-57.  Safe R.

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