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View Diary: State Polling Summary: Obama has a 95% chance of being re-elected, BUT (75 comments)

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  •  Old School Pundits put too much... (12+ / 0-)

    ... emphasis on "gut" instincts learned in a more collegial time.   They used to say an incumbent congressional seat was the safest job in town, now we've seen 3 straight wave elections and I predict a 4th.   Now that we have polls out the wazoo this type of analysis gets my money every time.

    •  I think what the pundits (12+ / 0-)

      miss is the degree of polarization.  That means polling is better than it used to be because they are actually fewer swing voters.

      The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

      by fladem on Fri Apr 27, 2012 at 11:36:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  you mean the polling is better or just easier? (0+ / 0-)

        maybe they were getting it "right" before but there was more likelihood of substantial shifts of opinion late on which would make them look "wrong".

        At presidential level it now looks like the two major parties are all but assured of cleaning up within their own electorate in the general. So the key questions become how many Ds and Rs show up to vote, and how Independents break. Campaigns therefore need to try to find a balance between motivating the base and appealing to unaligned voters. "Crossover appeal" may be important in some downticket races but it is almost extinct at the presidential level.

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