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View Diary: State Polling Summary: Obama has a 95% chance of being re-elected, BUT (75 comments)

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  •  I guess, then, that I still don't understand (6+ / 0-)

    the quoted paragraph - although I heartily concur that you don't give the House of Ras a dime.

    I suspect their crosstabs might get them into a Survey 2000 situation very quickly if someone like Nate Silver got a look at them.

    In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra En théorie, il n'y a aucune différence entre théorie et pratique, mais en pratique, il y a toujours une différence. - Yogi Berra

    by blue aardvark on Fri Apr 27, 2012 at 11:36:59 AM PDT

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    •  Rasmussen (10+ / 0-)

      is a strange nut.  Chris Bowers looked into whether they made the averages more or less accurate and the answer was clear.

      Here is another case no one EVER talks about.  Rasmussen polling on HCR finds about a 20 point gap in approval.  They did this in their last poll before the 2010 election.  By about 55-35 they said the electorate wants to repeat HCR.

      But the exit poll found an electorate split 47-47.  To my knowledge no one has EVER asked them about this, and they continue to pump out the same numbers as before.

      The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

      by fladem on Fri Apr 27, 2012 at 11:40:19 AM PDT

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      •  Same thing for Bush approval (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        The exit poll reported 27-71. Rasmussen averaged 33-64 for October 2008. It was noted throughout that year how he constantly had Bush doing better (relatively speaking) than all other polling. This is one of the things that makes me suspicious about getting the popular vote correct when the final state polls all had a McCain lean.

        "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

        by conspiracy on Sun Apr 29, 2012 at 03:14:00 PM PDT

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