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View Diary: "Everything you just said is wrong" (136 comments)

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  •  In thoughtful decision making, one needs (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sparhawk

    to be more conservative in planning the more adverse getting to wrong becomes.  

    A dentist does not need to be as conservative in preserving a tooth as a surgeon needs to be in removing cancers.

    Until we see strong economic growth, even the current forecasts being used may be too optimistic.  

    In the last quarter we had real GDP annualized growth of 2.2%, adjust for a 1% p.a. Population growth rate and it is easy to see that we are not ready to use more optimistic economic forecasts.

    The most important way to protect the environment is not to have more than one child.

    by nextstep on Sun Apr 29, 2012 at 01:45:01 PM PDT

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    •  Are you actually arguing (0+ / 0-)

      that in 10-15 years we're still going to be in a serious recession, or one at all? If so, then we're going to have much more serious problems than SS being 25% insolvent. Instead, we should be focusing on dealing with the problems that are causing the recession, and payroll tax receipts will go up accordingly, and deal with whatever little insolvency remains by raising the cap.

      We have a silly tendency to see the future in terms of only the present.

      "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

      by kovie on Sun Apr 29, 2012 at 01:59:56 PM PDT

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      •  Most all of our economic problems are solved (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Sparhawk

        with sustained significantly higher growth.  

        But until the growth rate turns up it is reckless to increase the social security growth forecasts.

        The most important way to protect the environment is not to have more than one child.

        by nextstep on Sun Apr 29, 2012 at 02:43:01 PM PDT

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        •  And it's silly to expect these problems not to be (0+ / 0-)

          solved or for the economy to recover eventually. Projecting forward from only recent events is really, really bad forecasting.

          Like, oh, predicting that house prices will always go up.

          "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

          by kovie on Sun Apr 29, 2012 at 04:56:36 PM PDT

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          •  Being unreasonably pessimistic... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            nextstep

            ...is better than unreasonably optimistic. If you're too pessimistic you have unexpected better performance.

            If you're too optimistic you have a big crisis if you have shortfalls.

            Buying a house because 'housing prices always go up' is too optimistic.

            (-5.50,-6.67): Left Libertarian
            Leadership doesn't mean taking a straw poll and then just throwing up your hands. -Jyrinx

            by Sparhawk on Sun Apr 29, 2012 at 05:47:22 PM PDT

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            •  Being overly pessimistic often ends up (0+ / 0-)

              being a self-fulfulling prophesy, in encouraging overly defensive and cautious policies that supress economic growth. You have to shoot for a sensible middle ground, which historically is what almost always happens.

              "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

              by kovie on Sun Apr 29, 2012 at 09:25:02 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

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