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View Diary: With one month to go, Wisconsin gubernatorial recall is still a tossup (97 comments)

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  •  LV/RV differences (7+ / 0-)

    I'm not sure that I'd agree with the assessment in the posting that "That falloff between likely and registered voters show that the Republicans still have a small edge on the enthusiasm gap here, or at least better follow-through on getting their partisans to commit to turning out."

    Quite frankly, we simply don't know what it means, because we don't know what screen the pollster is using to separate RV's from LV's. It could be stated intention to vote, past voting history, measurements of enthusiasm, knowledge of where your polling place is socio-economic factors, or a Ouija board. (All of those, except perhaps the Ouija board used by Scotty Rasmussen, are screens that some pollsters use to gauge "likely" voters.)

    I agree that the recall will be won or lost on turnout. But without more information about the pollster's LV screen, we have no idea how significant their distinction between RV and LV really is.

    My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world - Jack Layton

    by terjeanderson on Wed May 02, 2012 at 12:59:22 PM PDT

    •  The RV numbers are reverse exactly, i.e., Barrett (6+ / 0-)

      has a one-point lead there.
         The best conclusion is that five weeks out, one week before the Primary, they're tied.
         But Walker is under investigation in the John Doe case (or he could not have established a legal defense fund), and Barrett means to beat him over the head with it.

         And the Unions have the best GOTV ground game there is. Not to mention the enthusiasm of the People Power lined up against Governor Wanker.

      "We the People of the United States...." -U.S. Constitution

      by elwior on Wed May 02, 2012 at 06:01:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  God, elwior, (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, AnnieJo, elwior, terjeanderson

        I sure appreciate your optimism.  Worries me a bit that the unions have tied themselves to Falk.  Frankly, I don't much care if it's Falk or Barrett or Vinehout or LaFollette.  They're all such a vast improvement on Scott Walker, I'd run with any one of them.

        But the polls seem pretty clear at this point, and not a bit ambivalent.  It's got to be Barrett.  And I just hope the unions are ready to pivot, and pivot fast.  We just don't have much time.

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