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View Diary: Firearms and Civil Rights: Two Scenarios (162 comments)

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  •  Yes, how much effort did you put into (4+ / 0-)

    picking the start dates so that they fit your foregone conclusion? The decline in violent crime in the US is a decade older than the start dates you cite.

    Non enim propter gloriam, diuicias aut honores pugnamus set propter libertatem solummodo quam Nemo bonus nisi simul cum vita amittit. -Declaration of Arbroath

    by Robobagpiper on Thu May 03, 2012 at 11:04:03 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Practically none (0+ / 0-)

      I simply selected the most readily-available comparative statistics, spaced as far apart as possible to encompass as long a duration as I could easily find.

      Feel free to provide contradictory statistics.  

      •  And yet you draw some very broad conclusions from (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        theatre goon, oldpunk, PavePusher

        it.

        Leaving aside causality (which you merely leap to from rates without discussing massive demographic differences), you don't even establish that the net declines from the peak rates are constant across the whole period.

        For example, country A could have a greater decline in violent crime between 1990 and 2000, followed by lower one from 2000 to 2009; and still have a net decline greater than country B. The interpretation of these results would be totally different examining the whole trend period, as with selecting a subset of that data.

        And this is just one flaw with your reasoning.

        Non enim propter gloriam, diuicias aut honores pugnamus set propter libertatem solummodo quam Nemo bonus nisi simul cum vita amittit. -Declaration of Arbroath

        by Robobagpiper on Thu May 03, 2012 at 11:13:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  And -- to be clear (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SoCalSal

      I didn't have a "forgone conclusion."  I had a suspicion that the frequent citation of crime declines by gun enthusiasts, absent any comparative context whatsoever, was misleading at best and an outright lie at its worst.

      So I developed a hypothesis that decreases in crime in peer nations (i.e., large, generally wealthy and stable nations) was the more likely than not the rule rather than the exception, and that it's possible nations with stricter gun control laws than we have may have observed an even greater decline than we have observed in the USA.

      So I took a moment to look up statistics, and lo and behold, my hypothesis appears to be supported by data.

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