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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Some states tighten, but road to 270 for Mitt Romney remains tough (121 comments)

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  •  Texas will never be a swing state (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    In order for Texas to be a true swing state, it would have to affect the outcome of the presidential race.  Barring some radical electoral realignment, it's not possible for there to even be a close national contest if Texas is up for grabs -- this scenario would suggest double-digit wins for the Democrat in FL, PA, OH, VA, NC, GA, MO, and so on and so forth.  Texas could only be competitive in a Democratic landslide.

    In the modern era, no political party has lost four elections in a row.  Parties course correct to remain competitive.  If there's ever an election where Texas is in play, the Republicans will move sharply to the left Eisenhower style to make up the lost ground.

    •  Definition (5+ / 0-)
      In order for Texas to be a true swing state, it would have to affect the outcome of the presidential race.
      Unless you're Nate Silver, you just defined a tipping point state. A swing state is one that has a realistic chance, in a close election, of going either way.

      And in that respect, TX has not been a swing state in several cycles and is unlikely to be this time, either. But I'd caution you that there are demographic trends in the Democrats' favor, and that few Americans really thought Obama would win IN or NC last time, either, so though I really don't think Obama can win TX, I won't be flabbergasted if the margin is a lot closer than it was last time.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Thu May 03, 2012 at 10:11:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  TX could absolutely be a swing state someday, IF (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, JGibson, terjeanderson

        it continues to blue-shift AND some of the old-industrial eastern and midwest states continue to red-shift.    Or, as eg suggests, if the GOP completely realigns and thus scrambles the board.  

        "Texas has been a solid Silly-Party state for many years, but now all bets are off with the rapid rise of the Slightly Silly Party..."

    •  Wrong on all points (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, terjeanderson

      TX is inevitably headed to blue territory. Democraphics is destiny and voting age citizens in Texas will sport a latino majority in well under a generation. The 2032 election will be competitive in Texas only if it's a national Republican landslide.

      TX won't be a swing state this year, but it will be soon, probably in 2020. Then for an election or two it'll be swingy before settling into the D column. In any of those races, TX could be a swing state.

      Also, unless the 'modern era' somehow doesn't start until many years after the Second World War ended, the Dems did indeed win five elections in a row from 1932 to 1948. If you're waiting until long after the war, there hasn't really been enough time to measure if any party will win four or more in a row. There have been three in a row twice very recently (1980-1988, 1992-2000). One could easily say that three or more in a row is more common than not.

      •  You're ignoring another possibility (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lina

        which is that the Republican Party will moderate itself before we get close to 2032.

        The Republican Party has since the days of Reaganism been the party of low taxes for the rich and low benefits for the non-rich. Everything else is for the moment and can be dropped if necessary.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri May 04, 2012 at 12:13:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Relevant, but actually in a different way (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Newt, Sherri in TX

          If the GOP moderates, it will help attract white moderate suburbanites in places like Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan, etc.

          Whereas the blue trend in Texas will not be stopped by GOP moderation because minority groups will not start supporting the GOP any time soon. Demographics here really is destiny.

          A moderation by the GOP actually speeds Texas's trip to tipping point status because it would place Texas to the left of places like Pennsylvania (assuming their moderation re-attracted suburbanites).

          Not that I think the GOP will moderate itself any time soon, nor do I think that such a moderation will place those states in play.

          22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

          by wwmiv on Fri May 04, 2012 at 12:40:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Modern Era (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        The modern era in presidential politics is from 1952 onward. We define it this way in political science for two reasons: 1) polling becomes much more accurate at this time, so we're able to accurately forecast winners and losers using such methods and 2) economic data becomes much more thorough in the middle of the depression (indeed as a result of), which leads to a better political understanding (we exclude the first few elections due to FDR's overwhelming popularity as a wartime president. I.E. a "fresh" start).

        22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

        by wwmiv on Fri May 04, 2012 at 12:44:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  TX (0+ / 0-)

        The democrats haven't been competitive in Texas since Ann Richards was governor. The democratic party in Texas was routed in 2010 and the party is barely a minority party.

        I'm not buying a state that hasn't voted for a democrat for President in decades, has has GOP Senators for 20 years, has no democratic statewide office holders, and is the minority to a GOP supermajority in both state houses is a "swing state"

        I not even going to get into that POS governor they keep electing by landslides that is as dumb as rusty hammer.

        Texas is about as much of a swing state as Utah is.

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