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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/4 (323 comments)

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  •  Central Oregon (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, ArkDem14, supercereal

    Photobucket

    I also did Umatilla County, but since neither Kerry nor Obama won a single precinct there (though Obama came close in several, and tied one), its not so interesting.  Suffice it to say that our best precincts there are on the Indian reservation and in the heavily Hispanic parts of Hermiston and downtown Pendleton.

    The image is of Jefferson County (above) and Deschutes County (below), with Crook County on the right, which I don't have precinct data for.

    Obama actually narrowly won in the main Madras precincts in Jefferson County, winning one narrowly by more than he lost the other by.  The dark blue area in the west of Jefferson County is the Warm Springs Reservation, while the area south of that is Camp Sherman, which both Obama and Kerry narrowly carried.  Warm Springs crosses the county border in the north into Wasco, helping make Wasco an R+1 county, and also into Clackamas County, but I don't know if anyone actually lives in that part of it.  The rest of Jefferson County, outside of Culver (the pink area south of Madras), is pretty deep red.

    Deschutes County is home of the biggest city east of the Cascades, Bend, but also Redmond, Sunriver, La Pine, Sisters, and other places where people live and vacation.  Central and downtown Bend are very Democratic, but so is western Bend, and in the more conservative parts of northern, southern, and eastern Bend, Obama greatly outperformed Kerry.  Western Bend seems more tied into the recreational economy of the area, and even a rural precinct west of Bend, stretching all the way out to the county line, leans Democratic, but not enough to shift the massive census block on this map to being blue.  This area is home to ski and golf resorts, and in fact Black Butte Ranch, one such resort (in the far NW), was narrowly won by Obama.  And while both Kerry and Obama lost the city of Sisters, Obama outperformed Kerry by more than 10 points and got over 48%.  With the combination of trends in Bend and other parts of Deschutes County, and our small pockets of strength in Jefferson County, Democrats could put together some interesting legislative districts in the future that could bring us more victories there.  In other parts of the county, though, like Redmond and La Pine, we still get crushed.  In fact, the furthest southeast precinct gave John Kerry 0% of the vote, and Barack Obama less than 10%.

    We currently hold 0 legislative districts here, but won the Bend-based house district in 2008, and lost it in 2010.  Redistricting boosted it to a roughly D+4 district, so we have a good chance to take it back, especially with a local guy who has been on, IIRC, the planning commission, and is an instructor at the community college there as our candidate.

    Other basics about Deschutes County: I believe it grew roughly 40% in the last decade, and Obama lost it by only like 250 votes, while Kerry lost it by about 10,600.  He got 49% to Kerry's 42%.  Jefferson County is not really growing, and Obama got 44% to Kerry's 40%.

    Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

    by James Allen on Fri May 04, 2012 at 11:54:49 AM PDT

    •  Thanks for this (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, supercereal

      I think we could also win Chris Telfer's seat if she loses the tough primary she's in.

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 04, 2012 at 12:00:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  it's like (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14

        R+3.5 or 4, I think.  Her opponent is supposedly more conservative, which IDK about because she's pretty conservative herself, but he's also a former pol who was in leadership.  I think it's likely he'd cruise, but I guess we'd have a shot, especially in the future.

        Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

        by James Allen on Fri May 04, 2012 at 12:08:23 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think we'd have a shot if it's R+4 or less (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14

          I think there's a reluctance to go after Telfer because she's pretty good about working across party lines (she's close with now-Rep. Bonamici, for example), but if she loses the primary, I think it's a potential pickup opportunity.

          Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 04, 2012 at 12:35:45 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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