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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/4 (323 comments)

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  •  Schapira may be the weakest (0+ / 0-)

    He's raised the least money and gotten the fewest endorsements, and I'm not sure that having Grijalva's endorsement in the primary helps him much for the general. Cherny is the best fit for the district (which is not economically liberal) on paper, although I suspect as many on this board do that he could rub a lot of voters the wrong way. Even leaving that aside, Schapira looks weaker to me than Sinema does. He's about as liberal as she is but doesn't seem to have her charisma or intellect. (Not that he's dumb, but Sinema is freakishly smart, she graduated from BYU at 18.) Sinema has some arguable trouble spots in that she voted for Nader in 2000, gets along ok with Russell Pearce, and is openly bisexual, but I think she's smooth and should be able to put to rest any concerns about that stuff.

    I think Dems are favored here but this district is probably only about D+2 or D+3.  Any of the 3 Dems could potentially lose the general, but I think Schapira may be most at risk.

    SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 03:43:23 PM PDT

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    •  Uh, Schapira has the most endorsements. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, MichaelNY, Xenocrypt

      He may have raised the least amount of money, but that is because he kept his job in the AZ leg, rather than quitting to raise money.

      To your other point, Schapira has the most endorsement, in fact, it's not even close. http://www.davidforaz.com/...

    •  Cherny is highly unpalatable (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      Especially given his silly DNC pandering days where he talked about partially privatizing social security, and the fact he has no roots the district and is raising money through his national connections.

      I don't really want a candidate who gets along with Russell Pearce. Period.

      But mainly, Schapira represents the more Republican Senate district, and was reelected in 2010. He's a but more moderate than Sinema, a good campaigner, and a bright guy.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 05:07:44 PM PDT

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      •  So because someone can actually hold (2+ / 0-)

        a conversation with someone they completely disagree with, that means they aren't a real Democrat? Sinema's philosophy (she wrote a book on it) is about developing relationships, even with people you disagree with, to get at least some of things you want done. It's just good politics.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:33:19 PM PDT

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        •  There was something that (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          popped elsewhere a while back where Sinema defended him over something, but the man is so racist I don't know how he's allowed to be a national spokesman for any movement.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Sat May 05, 2012 at 04:44:17 AM PDT

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      •  honestly (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, ArkDem14

        I kind of agree with you, but he comes off to me as less likeable than Sinema.  And I originally had a pretty bad impression of her, which some people here might recall.

        Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

        by James Allen on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:40:54 PM PDT

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    •  I just can't worry too much about AZ-09 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

      when the Republican Party of Arizona is fielding a bunch of Some Dudes (plus Vernon Parker, who raised all of $30,000 so far)--not that Some Dudes can't win, exactly, but it doesn't speak to local Republican confidence in their ability to contest this seat.  If John McComish was running, that'd be one thing (well, it'd be a few things--great news for AZ Legislative Democrats, as well).  

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:34:05 PM PDT

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    •  Well (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      Martin Sepulveda is a former Chandler Councillor, so he's not a Some Dude, but he also raised the non-intimidating sum of $65,000.  

      Maybe he's Bob Turner to Schapira or Sinema's David Weprin, but I doubt it (for one thing, NY-09 was trending Republican, and AZ-09 seems to be trending Democratic).

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:36:55 PM PDT

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      •  hmm (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        Sepulveda's resume is impressive, but his issues page has nothing but right-wing boilerplate. I don't think that being rigidly anti-abortion and wanting to use the military to patrol the Mexican border will go over too well in a Dem-leaning district.

        SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:01:32 PM PDT

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