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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/4 (323 comments)

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  •  MI-7: A New (and more serious) Challenger (6+ / 0-)

    Tim Walberg gets an actual and serious challenge in MI-7:

    SUMMIT TWP. -- Jackson County Democratic Party Chairman Ruben Marquez announced Friday he is seeking the seat in Congress now held by Tipton Republican Tim Walberg.

    Marquez's announcement came on the same day that former Republican U.S. Rep. Joe Schwarz announced he decided not to run as a Democrat to seek the 7th Congressional District seat.

    Marquez, 53, is a laser technician for Eaton Corp. of Jackson.

    He said many people have told him they are tired of elected officials who push for legislation that hurts working people.

    Still a long-shot, but still prominent enough a challenger to make what was to be a run-away look interesting.
    •  better than that nutball (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Dems should at least be able to play in this district now, especially if Romney pulls out of the state.

      SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 08:14:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Romney won't pull out of MI (0+ / 0-)

        If he can't win MI, he's probably done for. Which I think is likely.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri May 04, 2012 at 08:20:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  how so? (4+ / 0-)

          he's got a better shot in VA than in MI.

          Win back IN, FL, NC, OH, VA, and either IA or CO and that's the election.

          That seems easier than taking MI

          19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

          by jncca on Fri May 04, 2012 at 08:45:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I see your point (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            blueonyx

            But do you think he'd be rational like that? He certainly seems to have the capacity for cold rationality, but he also doesn't seem to have a good strategic game for this level of race. So I'm thinking he'll irrationally consider MI a "home state" that he will somehow win.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Fri May 04, 2012 at 08:50:59 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Mitt's map strategy is now public (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, itskevin, kleinburger

              Dan Balz wrote about it in WaPo just today or yesterday.

              It's a Rove idea, "3-2-1."  First re-secure IN, NC, and VA.  Then get OH and FL.  Then get one other tossup state.

              That actually looks very doable at first blush, until you realize that's still a lot of pure tossups to have to pull in, some of which already tilt toward Obama.  In fact, Romney clearly would lose Virginia today.  And I'm quite confident he'd lose CO and NV, as well as all Kerry states.

              Romney is in real trouble, more than the national polls reveal.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Fri May 04, 2012 at 09:29:28 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  The fact that Virginia (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, DCCyclone

                is in Rove's foundational row of states (in the 3-2-1 pyramid) confirms that Romney's got his work cut out for him. Virginia looks like a surer bet for us than either Ohio and Florida, and perhaps at least as secure as some states on Romney's top, presumably most challenging row (e.g. IA or NH).

        •  disagree (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, blueonyx

          He's way behind there. At a minimum OH, VA, CO, NV, IA, NH, and PA would go red before MI does, and probably WI as well.

          SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 09:32:39 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Disagree (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          Romney doesn't need Michigan.  If Romney wins MI, then he has already won many other states like IN, OH, PA, WI, FL, NC.  MI would just be the icing on the cake.  

    •  Great news (4+ / 0-)

      Schwarz would have been preferable, but this probably moves it to Lean R.

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 04, 2012 at 11:08:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It really is (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I've been lamenting forever how no one in Jackson (the Dems only powerbase in this district) was jumping in on this.  They were shirking their duty, if you ask me, being the only real heavy concentration of Dems.  If you can't push up the Dem turnout in Jackson, you don't even have any hope of seriously contesting this district.  At least now they have a hometown boy in the race, and, better yet, a union guy who'll be able to use their organizational skills.

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