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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/4 (323 comments)

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  •  Romney won't pull out of MI (0+ / 0-)

    If he can't win MI, he's probably done for. Which I think is likely.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Fri May 04, 2012 at 08:20:28 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  how so? (4+ / 0-)

      he's got a better shot in VA than in MI.

      Win back IN, FL, NC, OH, VA, and either IA or CO and that's the election.

      That seems easier than taking MI

      19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

      by jncca on Fri May 04, 2012 at 08:45:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I see your point (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        blueonyx

        But do you think he'd be rational like that? He certainly seems to have the capacity for cold rationality, but he also doesn't seem to have a good strategic game for this level of race. So I'm thinking he'll irrationally consider MI a "home state" that he will somehow win.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri May 04, 2012 at 08:50:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Mitt's map strategy is now public (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, itskevin, kleinburger

          Dan Balz wrote about it in WaPo just today or yesterday.

          It's a Rove idea, "3-2-1."  First re-secure IN, NC, and VA.  Then get OH and FL.  Then get one other tossup state.

          That actually looks very doable at first blush, until you realize that's still a lot of pure tossups to have to pull in, some of which already tilt toward Obama.  In fact, Romney clearly would lose Virginia today.  And I'm quite confident he'd lose CO and NV, as well as all Kerry states.

          Romney is in real trouble, more than the national polls reveal.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri May 04, 2012 at 09:29:28 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The fact that Virginia (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, DCCyclone

            is in Rove's foundational row of states (in the 3-2-1 pyramid) confirms that Romney's got his work cut out for him. Virginia looks like a surer bet for us than either Ohio and Florida, and perhaps at least as secure as some states on Romney's top, presumably most challenging row (e.g. IA or NH).

    •  disagree (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, blueonyx

      He's way behind there. At a minimum OH, VA, CO, NV, IA, NH, and PA would go red before MI does, and probably WI as well.

      SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 09:32:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Disagree (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      Romney doesn't need Michigan.  If Romney wins MI, then he has already won many other states like IN, OH, PA, WI, FL, NC.  MI would just be the icing on the cake.  

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