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View Diary: Texas marches toward swing state status. Only question is 'when?' (253 comments)

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  •  Having grown up there and worked elections (1+ / 0-)
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    coquiero

    My observation is that the sense of things being applied to expectations about the demographic shift is very West Coast.

    It should be taken into account that Texas is nothing like the West Coast, except in exceptional places like parts of Austin.

    The proximity to Mexico, and the amount of population growth that comes from the Rust Belt, from Chicago to El Salvador,
    creates a lot of economic pressure.

    In the first wave of Hispanic political players I saw in Austin, were many who were desperate to escape poverty and go after the money, after approval, and after success.  This tended to make those Hispanics eager to align with conservative money.

    There were those who were brilliant and became public service oriented, and succeeded that way.  Those Hispanics tended to be very progressive.  

    The voter turnout apathy is ever present in precincts with large Hispanic majorities.  This tends to be the result of a very hard struggle to make it.  Most of the people who you encounter are very hard working.  In the background, whether it be the past in Texas or in Central or South America there is experience that has taught a lot of people to be reluctant to stand out in any way.  They generally don't have time to do any volunteer work and they know that any information that they run across is largely suspect.  

    The prospects are very mixed.  With a rise in the Hispanic population, and a rise in Hispanic success in law and in business and in general, there will be a change of faces in the political leadership.  

    The first Hispanic Texas governor will probably be sworn in sometime in the next decade.  Will he or she be a progressive, a moderate, a blue dog - or a conservative Republican?

    Most likely a moderate who can gain suburban swing votes in places like Houston and Dallas.  Those people are pretty conservative, but could support a moderate if the conditions were right.  

    The right candidate, at the right time.  We'll just have to wait and see.

    hope that the idiots who have no constructive and creative solutions but only look to tear down will not win the day.

    by Stuart Heady on Tue May 08, 2012 at 11:00:19 AM PDT

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